Osasuna at Levante
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
TOTAL
UNDER
2.5
Poor records (Levante 8-9-17, Osasuna 11-9-14) project <2.5 goals in LaLiga spot
Ω Bottom Line
Levante +160 ML +0.1 EV (38.5% posterior >37.2% de-vig fair); under 2.5 Lean in low-output spot
All OMEGA Picks
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Poor records (Levante 8-9-17, Osasuna 11-9-14) project <2.5 goals in LaLiga spot
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion posterior matches market at 39.2% Levante win / 60.8% Osasuna with 0.0pp edge, no line movement or sharp signals. Osasuna slight form edge (11-9-14 record, Budimir 16G) but heavy juice kills EV on ML/spread (-190/-195). Low-scoring spot for sub-.500 sides, totals weak historically (47.7% Lean WR).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Carlos Espí
Levante
Under 0.5 goals
60%
9 goals in 21 matches (0.43 gpg) projects under vs solid Osasuna defense
PROP ALERT
Jeremy Toljan
Levante
Under 0.5 assists
58%
3 assists in 33 matches (0.09 rate) low usage RB
PROP ALERT
Mathew Ryan
Levante
Over 3.5 saves
62%
110 saves projected ~3.7 avg in expected shots matchup
PROP ALERT
Iván Romero
Levante
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Low volume (57 total metric) projects under
PROP ALERT
Adrián de la Fuente
Levante
Over 30.5 passing_yards
59%
1047 yards avg ~31.7, home game usage boost
PROP ALERT
Carlos Espí
Levante
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Model projects 1.2 SOT based on goal output
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Under 0.5 goals
60%
16 goals in 33 (0.48 gpg) slight under projection away
PROP ALERT
Alejandro Catena
Osasuna
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Defender minimal shots (model proj low)