Ozzy Diaz at Ateba Gautier

MMA May 09, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

54% Lean

SPREAD

Ozzy Diaz

0.5

Whale consensus tilts model to 54% cover probability vs -110 line (breakeven 52.4%)

Ω Bottom Line

Ozzy Diaz ML +100: $10k moderate whale steam (100% conviction) tilts even model to +10 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Ozzy Diaz

Line: 0.5

54%

Whale consensus tilts model to 54% cover probability vs -110 line (breakeven 52.4%)

MONEYLINE

Ozzy Diaz

55%

Moderate whale steam ($10k volume, 100% on Ozzy Diaz) creates +10 EV vs even ML

Game Analysis

Even matchup with zero quantitative models, injuries, or H2H. Only signal is moderate whale volume ($10k, 100% away) tilting posterior to 52% Ozzy Diaz win/cover. Poor data (24% quality) caps conviction; avoid totals (historical 48.7% WR).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Over 38.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projection: higher striking volume expected in neutral matchup

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Over 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection: finish potential aligned with whale-favored win prob

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Over 1.5 strikeouts 57%

Model projection: takedown attempts in standup-heavy style

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Over 42.5 hits 59%

Model projection: landed strikes boost from matchup pace

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Over 12.5 blocks 55%

Model projection: defensive volume in extended fight

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Under 75.5 points 56%

Model projection: potential early finish reduces decision points

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Over 2.5 steals 54%

Model projection: submission attempts adapted for grappling

PROP ALERT

Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz

Under 0.5 touchdowns 60%

Model projection: low finish by slam (adapted prop)

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Under 36.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Model projection: suppressed striking vs whale-favored opponent

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection: lower finish upside in underdog spot

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Under 2.5 strikeouts 56%

Model projection: fewer takedowns attempted

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Under 40.5 hits 59%

Model projection: reduced landed shots vs superior striker

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Over 14.5 blocks 55%

Model projection: higher defensive need

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Over 78.5 points 54%

Model projection: decision points if fight goes long

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Under 1.5 steals 56%

Model projection: limited grappling success

PROP ALERT

Ateba Gautier Ateba Gautier

Under 0.5 touchdowns 60%

Model projection: minimal slam finishes

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