Parma at Udinese

Serie A April 18, 2026 01:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Parma

0.5

Juiced Udinese -0.5 at -150 with only 52% model win prob creates reciprocal value on Parma +0.5

Ω Bottom Line

Udinese +110 ML value (52% model vs 47.6% implied, +9.2 EV) in data-poor spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Parma

Line: 0.5

55%

Juiced Udinese -0.5 at -150 with only 52% model win prob creates reciprocal value on Parma +0.5

MONEYLINE

Udinese

60%

Home ML +110 undervalues Udinese at 47.6% implied vs our 52% projection from calibrated

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Serie A avg ~2.7 goals but totals historically losing (48.7% WR), model projects 2.3 total

Game Analysis

Udinese home edge lifts win prob to 54% vs market 49% on -0.5 spread (+10.7 EV at +105). Low-output attacks (Davis 10g/27m, Pellegrino 8g/31m) favor under 2.5 in expected 2.3 total goals. Data voids cap at lean tier despite positive model probs.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Keinan Davis Parma

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection 0.3 goals vs line; season 10/27=0.37 avg regresses in neutral matchup (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Keinan Davis Parma

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Low volume striker projects 1.1 SOT vs Udinese defense (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Emanuele Valeri Parma

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Usage boost potential projects 0.7 SOT (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Adrian Bernabe Parma

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Midfield role limits to 0.9 projection (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Dennis Man Parma

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Winger avg regresses to 0.3 vs Udinese (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Ange-Yoan Bonny Parma

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Road matchup adjustment to 1.2 (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Mateo Pellegrino Udinese

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 8/31=0.26 avg, projects 0.4 at home (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Mateo Pellegrino Udinese

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Parma defense limits to 1.3 projection (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Nicolò Zaniolo Udinese

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High usage winger projects 1.7 SOT (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Lorenzo Lucca Udinese

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Target man 0.35 projection vs Parma (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Florian Thauvin Udinese

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Home boost to 1.2 SOT (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Isaak Touré Udinese

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Backup role projects 0.3 (model-generated line)

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