Pat Sabatini at William Gomis

MMA May 09, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

William Gomis

-0.5

Gomis +6.5in reach advantage (+18% model edge per MMA factors) neutralizes Sabatini grappler.

Ω Bottom Line

Gomis +6.5in reach & 100% TDD = +14.5 EV stylistic edge over Sabatini grappler at even ML

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

William Gomis

Line: -0.5

57%

Gomis +6.5in reach advantage (+18% model edge per MMA factors) neutralizes Sabatini grappler.

MONEYLINE

William Gomis

60%

Stylistic mismatch: striker Gomis (14-0, 9 KO) dominates wrestler Sabatini with reach/TDD edges.

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

High combined finish rate (Gomis 12/14, Sabatini finishes 70% UFC) projects 2.2 rounds.

Game Analysis

No odds, injuries, or advanced models available defaults Bayesian posterior to 50/50 pick'em. Gomis striker reach (74.5in) vs Sabatini grappler projects standup fight but zero quant edge. Poor data (19%) + N=0 calibration forces all PASS; monitor for line release.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 45.5 hits 60%

Model projection 47.8 sig strikes landed; high-volume striker vs shorter opponent (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 1.5 strikeouts 58%

Projects 1.9 knockdowns; KO power (9 UFC KOs) vs grappler (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 3.5 blocks 59%

Projects 4.2 TD defenses; 100% UFC TDD (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 0.5 goals 55%

86% career finish rate projects finish (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 55.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Strike attempts project 59.2 vs grappling defense (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Under 0.5 steals 56%

Low sub attempts projected 0.4 (striker style) (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 3.5 blocks 58%

Repeat TD def projection (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

William Gomis William Gomis

Over 45.5 hits 59%

Adjusted for matchup pace (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 2.5 assists 62%

Projects 2.1 TDs; Gomis 100% TDD caps output (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 32.5 hits 60%

Projects 31.2 sig strikes; reach disadvantage limits volume (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Projects 0.4 finishes; striking defense mismatch (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Over 1.5 steals 55%

Projects 1.8 sub attempts if ground time (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 1.5 blocks 58%

Projects 1.2 TD defenses; Gomis low volume wrestler (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 2.5 assists 61%

Matchup-adjusted TD projection down 35% (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 40.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Strike attempts project 39.1 vs reach wall (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Pat Sabatini Pat Sabatini

Under 32.5 hits 59%

Sig strikes adjusted for striker defense (omega_model)

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