Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers
11.5
Market Consensus fair away cover 49.5% vs market implied 46.5% (+3% overlay), sharp 1.1% edge to PHI
Ω Bottom Line
PHI +11.5: 3% Pinnacle overlay (fair 49.5% cover) + sharp 1.1% edge fades Embiid overreaction
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers
Line: 11.5
Market Consensus fair away cover 49.5% vs market implied 46.5% (+3% overlay), sharp 1.1% edge to PHI
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia 76ers
No edge; our 15.4% < +410 implied 19.6%
TOTAL
over
Line: 214.5
Sharp 19.0% divergence to over + Market Consensus fair over 48.4% vs retail pricing
Game Analysis
Omega -2.5 + MC 60% home cover -2.5 crushed by market -13.5 on Embiid news (only -6.9% impact); Philly +13.5 covers 69% w/ mean margin 6.4. Total 119.8 laughable vs 187 proj/MC over 70%+. Whale home extreme but PM/sharp away value + Bayesian -15% edge confirm contrarian.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Jaylen Brown
Boston Celtics
Over 28.0 points
64%
PHI frontcourt depleted by Embiid DTD boosts wing usage vs avg matchup
PROP ALERT
Derrick White
Boston Celtics
Over 5.5 assists
61%
Playoff secondary facilitator thrives vs PHI perimeter D
PROP ALERT
Neemias Queta
Boston Celtics
Over 8.0 rebounds
59%
Backup minutes expand vs Drummond-only PHI frontcourt
PROP ALERT
Jayson Tatum
Boston Celtics
Over 31.5 points
65%
Star alpha hunts vs Embiid-limited PHI (model proj +2.5pts usage)
PROP ALERT
Derrick White
Boston Celtics
Over 16.0 points
58%
Spot-up volume up in fast-paced playoff spot
PROP ALERT
Payton Pritchard
Boston Celtics
Over 2.5 three_pointers
57%
Bench spark vs PHI weak bench D
PROP ALERT
Jayson Tatum
Boston Celtics
Over 9.5 rebounds
60%
Board crash vs Drummond/Embiid uncertainty
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 28.0 points
63%
Alpha usage spikes 5%+ with Embiid DTD (carry load)
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 6.5 assists
62%
Playmaking bump in PHI halfcourt grind
PROP ALERT
Andre Drummond
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 8.5 rebounds
59%
Start minutes vs BOS bigs, rebounding load up
PROP ALERT
Paul George
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 22.5 points
60%
Secondary scorer volume steady despite Embiid
PROP ALERT
Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers
Under 26.5 points
62%
DTD limits minutes/usage -15% proj adj vs BOS length
PROP ALERT
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 15.0 points
58%
Wing minutes expand with injury cascade
PROP ALERT
Quentin Grimes
Philadelphia 76ers
Under 12.0 points
57%
Limited role behind Maxey/George in crunch