Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

NBA May 05, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

7.5

Market Consensus de-vigged fair value 50.5% 76ers cover vs retail implied 52.8%; weak sharp away signal.

Ω Bottom Line

76ers +7.5 slim +EV (Pinnacle 50.5% cover); sharp 16.7% over 212.5 edge despite model total weakness

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

Line: 7.5

55%

Market Consensus de-vigged fair value 50.5% 76ers cover vs retail implied 52.8%; weak sharp away signal.

TOTAL

over

Line: 212.5

59%

Sharp edge 16.7% on over; Market Consensus fair 49.5% over vs retail; cross-market over lean.

Game Analysis

Zero Bayesian edge on Knicks 72.1% ML posterior matching -258 breakeven, but extreme $411k whale volume (institutional, 100% home) provides strongest Tier 2 confirm despite weak 0.9% sharp spread lean to 76ers. No injuries/situational flags or MC/posteriors limit to lean tier after -5 poor data haircut. Pinnacle fair spread near even (50.8% home cover) vs market -6.5 suggests value if whales steam closes.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 25.5 points 64%

Season leader avg 26.0 exceeds projection line; high usage vs Philly defense.

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 6.5 assists 62%

Leader avg 6.8; primary ball-handler with Embiid DTD boosting playmaking.

PROP ALERT

OG Anunoby New York Knicks

Over 16.0 points 58%

Consistent scorer in rotation; favorable matchup vs Philly wings.

PROP ALERT

Mikal Bridges New York Knicks

Over 18.5 points 60%

High-volume wing; projects over in home spot.

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 7.0 rebounds 57%

Hustle rebounder; Knicks board well at home.

PROP ALERT

Mitchell Robinson New York Knicks

Over 8.5 rebounds 61%

Rim protector/rebounder; edge vs Drummond.

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 4.5 assists 56%

Secondary facilitator in Brunson system.

PROP ALERT

Mikal Bridges New York Knicks

Under 2.5 three_pointers 55%

Volume shooter but avg below line vs Philly perimeter D.

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Team leader 28.3 avg; usage spikes with Embiid DTD.

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 6.0 assists 60%

Primary creator; projects over in road spot.

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Under 29.5 points 58%

DTD risk vs Knicks frontcourt; reduced projection.

PROP ALERT

Andre Drummond Philadelphia 76ers

Over 8.0 rebounds 62%

Leader avg 8.4; boards well if Embiid limited.

PROP ALERT

Paul George Philadelphia 76ers

Over 22.0 points 61%

Star wing production stable vs Knicks.

PROP ALERT

Kelly Oubre Jr. Philadelphia 76ers

Over 14.5 points 57%

Rotation scorer; pace favors.

PROP ALERT

Kyle Lowry Philadelphia 76ers

Over 4.0 assists 59%

Veteran PG dishes in secondary role.

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Over 11.0 rebounds 60%

Dominant if plays; rebound machine.

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