Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

NBA May 06, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

6.5

Sharp 1.8% edge on away spread cover vs Market Consensus fair value (home cover 50.2%)

Ω Bottom Line

Sharp 1.8% spread edge PHI +6.5 + 14.9% over total EV vs Pinnacle, whales home but juice kills ML

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

Line: 6.5

60%

Sharp 1.8% edge on away spread cover vs Market Consensus fair value (home cover 50.2%)

TOTAL

over

Line: 215.5

58%

Strong 14.9% sharp edge to over + +35.5% EV vs Market Consensus fair (over 49.3%)

Game Analysis

Sharp money hammers away spread cover (+7.2, 3% edge + RLM) and over (19.1% divergence + RLM) despite extreme $410k whale volume on Knicks ML. Pinnacle de-vig favors 51.2% 76ers cover prob vs retail -7.2. Poor data (48%) and totals' 48.7% WR cap conf at Lean; Bayesian ML posterior flat at 73.8%.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 25.5 points 65%

Season leader avg exceeds projection, high usage vs PHI defense (model proj)

PROP ALERT

OG Anunoby New York Knicks

Over 16.5 points 60%

Consistent scorer, favorable matchup (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Mikal Bridges New York Knicks

Over 19.0 points 62%

Volume shooter, PHI wing D weak (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 4.5 assists 58%

Playmaking in transition (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Mitchell Robinson New York Knicks

Over 8.5 rebounds 61%

Board dominance vs Drummond (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Miles McBride New York Knicks

Under 9.5 points 59%

Limited minutes behind Brunson (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 7.0 rebounds 57%

Hustle boards (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 6.5 assists 64%

Primary creator (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Lead scorer with Embiid DTD usage boost (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Paul George Philadelphia 76ers

Over 22.0 points 61%

Wing volume vs NY perimeter D (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Andre Drummond Philadelphia 76ers

Over 8.0 rebounds 63%

Rebounding leader, minutes up w/ Embiid DTD (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Under 28.5 points 60%

Day-to-day limits usage (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 6.0 assists 62%

Playmaking load increases (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Kelly Oubre Jr. Philadelphia 76ers

Over 14.5 points 58%

Spot-up role expands (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Kyle Lowry Philadelphia 76ers

Over 4.0 assists 59%

Veteran facilitator (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Quentin Grimes Philadelphia 76ers

Over 2.0 three_pointers 57%

Shooting volume (model proj)

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