Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks

NBA May 12, 2026 04:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

7.0

Posterior 58.9% 76ers cover +7 vs 50% implied, Omega -2.5 + 4.5pt edge over market

Ω Bottom Line

76ers +7.0 (58.9% posterior edge +8.9pp) as market overprices Knicks -2.5pts too far amid OG injury

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

Line: 7.0

56%

Posterior 58.9% 76ers cover +7 vs 50% implied, Omega -2.5 + 4.5pt edge over market

MONEYLINE

New York Knicks

50%

Posterior 75.2% vs 73.3% breakeven but heavy juice >-250 mandates pass

TOTAL

over

Line: 118.2

52%

Posterior 57.1% over vs 50% implied, sharp 15.6% edge + model 79% over at 179

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior fuses at 73.5% Knicks ML matching market for 0 edge, heavy -277 juice forces PASS per rules. Spread gets lift from RLM sharp home signal (0.5%) + extreme $875k whale volume (84% conf) vs PM 54% home divergence. Total over has strongest quant at 15.6% sharp edge and +37.5 EV, but totals WR 47.2% lean tier caps sizing. Degraded data reduces all conf by 4.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 25.5 points 64%

High usage star, leads team at 26ppg, favorable matchup projection

PROP ALERT

Jalen Brunson New York Knicks

Over 6.5 assists 62%

Primary ballhandler, season avg 6.8 adjusted for minutes

PROP ALERT

Mikal Bridges New York Knicks

Over 18.5 points 60%

Consistent scorer, projection holds vs Philly defense

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 7.5 rebounds 58%

Hustle rebounder, benefits from Drummond matchup

PROP ALERT

Jordan Clarkson New York Knicks

Under 15.0 points 59%

Bench role limits upside in playoffs

PROP ALERT

Miles McBride New York Knicks

Over 3.0 assists 57%

Spot starter potential with injuries

PROP ALERT

Mitchell Robinson New York Knicks

Over 9.0 rebounds 61%

Rim protector, high reb rate vs Embiid

PROP ALERT

Josh Hart New York Knicks

Over 10.5 points 56%

All-around contributor in extended minutes

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 27.5 points 65%

Lead scorer, explodes vs Knicks perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 6.5 assists 63%

Playmaker role amplified without full PG

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Over 31.0 points 64%

Dominant inside vs Knicks frontcourt injuries

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Over 11.5 rebounds 62%

Rebounding machine, edge vs thin Knicks bigs

PROP ALERT

Paul George Philadelphia 76ers

Over 22.0 points 60%

Wing scorer thrives in transition

PROP ALERT

Andre Drummond Philadelphia 76ers

Over 8.5 rebounds 61%

Backup big feasts on boards with Embiid rest

PROP ALERT

Kelly Oubre Jr. Philadelphia 76ers

Under 12.0 points 58%

Limited role behind stars

PROP ALERT

Kyle Lowry Philadelphia 76ers

Over 4.0 assists 57%

Veteran facilitator in playoffs

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