Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs

NBA April 07, 2026 12:00 AM ET FINAL 102 - 115

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

8.5

OMEGA spread -3.0 vs market -8.5 = 5.5pt discrepancy + RLM to away + talent mismatch overprices favorite

Ω Bottom Line

PHI +8.5 & +295 ML: OMEGA -3.0 vs mkt -8.5 (5.5pt edge) + 60.5% win prob, historically overpriced 16-win diff spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia 76ers

Line: 8.5

65%

OMEGA spread -3.0 vs market -8.5 = 5.5pt discrepancy + RLM to away + talent mismatch overprices favorite

MONEYLINE

Philadelphia 76ers

64%

60.5% win prob vs 25.3% implied (+295), breakeven 77.8% exceeded by 17.3%

TOTAL

under

Line: 237.5

62%

OMEGA total 203.0 vs market 237.5 = 34.5pt underedge, MC over 49% at 203

Game Analysis

OMEGA Poisson+ELO projects Spurs 103-100 (-3.0 spread, 60.5% win prob matching -153 ML); Embiid/Payne DTD creates Philly variance but model holds steady home edge. No situational flags or sharp signals; calibration demands conservative conf (overconfident in 55-72 tiers). Moneylines profitable historically—lean Spurs ML over spread; fade totals (consistent loser).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

De'Aaron Fox San Antonio Spurs

Over 25.5 points 62%

High-usage PG, expected pace adjustment vs PHI defense

PROP ALERT

Stephon Castle San Antonio Spurs

Over 7.0 assists 60%

Season leader, matchup boosts playmaking

PROP ALERT

Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs

Over 11.5 rebounds 64%

Rebound leader, home dominance vs Drummond

PROP ALERT

Keldon Johnson San Antonio Spurs

Over 16.5 points 58%

Consistent scorer, volume up in favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Harrison Barnes San Antonio Spurs

Under 13.0 points 59%

Reduced role with Fox/Wemby, PHI wing defense

PROP ALERT

Julian Champagnie San Antonio Spurs

Over 2.0 three_pointers 57%

Shooter volume in home game

PROP ALERT

Kelly Olynyk San Antonio Spurs

Under 3.5 assists 61%

Limited role behind Castle/Fox

PROP ALERT

Mason Plumlee San Antonio Spurs

Under 6.5 rebounds 60%

Wemby minutes limit backup rebounding

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 28.5 points 65%

Team leader, high usage on road

PROP ALERT

Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

Over 6.5 assists 63%

Primary creator with Payne out

PROP ALERT

Andre Drummond Philadelphia 76ers

Over 8.0 rebounds 62%

Broome out boosts board work vs Wemby

PROP ALERT

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

Over 30.5 points 64%

Star center, rebound battle usage

PROP ALERT

Paul George Philadelphia 76ers

Over 21.5 points 61%

Wing scorer volume expected

PROP ALERT

Kelly Oubre Jr. Philadelphia 76ers

Under 2.5 three_pointers 59%

SA perimeter D limits

PROP ALERT

Kyle Lowry Philadelphia 76ers

Under 4.0 assists 58%

Backup role to Maxey

PROP ALERT

Quentin Grimes Philadelphia 76ers

Under 12.5 points 60%

Limited shots behind Maxey/Embiid

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