Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox

MLB May 12, 2026 10:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Phillies

-1.5

Strong 18.9% sharp edge on away spread side per Market Consensus vs retail divergence

Ω Bottom Line

Phillies ML -143: 18.9% sharp spread div + $860k extreme whales = +3.7 EV vs neutral bayesian

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Phillies

Line: -1.5

62%

Strong 18.9% sharp edge on away spread side per Market Consensus vs retail divergence

MONEYLINE

Philadelphia Phillies

61%

Tier 2 convergence: extreme whales ($860k vol tier) + sharp divergence boost posterior from 54% to 61%

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior 54.5% Phillies win with extreme $845k whale steam (institutional) + Kalshi 55% away overrides tiny home injury edge (+1.9%). MC 10k sims project 9.2-10.0 score (away slight fav, 52.8% cover 0.0). Under crushes at 77.3% in sims despite totals calibration weakness (N=776 MLB 51.2%).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Season 16 HR leader but projects under vs unknown matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 hits 56%

.353 BA leader projects over standard line (model)

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

2.11 ERA projects K edge vs BOS lineup (model)

PROP ALERT

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

High-usage star projects over (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 hits 55%

Consistent contact hitter (model)

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

27 RBI but low projection here (model)

PROP ALERT

Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Reliable avg hitter (model)

PROP ALERT

Nick Castellanos Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

Power/contact profile (model)

PROP ALERT

Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox

Over 1.0 hits 59%

.295 BA leader projects over (model)

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

8 HR season but day-to-day risk, under proj (model)

PROP ALERT

Connelly Early Boston Red Sox

Over 4.5 strikeouts 60%

3.16 ERA, 39K leader projects well (model)

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

23 RBI projects slight over (model)

PROP ALERT

Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Core power bat (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox

Over 1.0 hits 55%

Leadoff speed/contact (model)

PROP ALERT

Triston Casas Boston Red Sox

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

Power but under vs PHI (model)

PROP ALERT

Masataka Yoshida Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Contact hitter avg (model)

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