Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox

MLB May 13, 2026 10:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Phillies

1.5

model sims away covers 52% at 0.0 spread (proj -0.8 BOS), omega spread even vs market BOS fav, sharp 19.3% edge away.

Ω Bottom Line

Over 9.0 +24 EV (models 20 runs) + PHI ML +5.3pp edge vs BOS -131 juice

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Phillies

Line: 1.5

55%

model sims away covers 52% at 0.0 spread (proj -0.8 BOS), omega spread even vs market BOS fav, sharp 19.3% edge away.

TOTAL

over

Line: 9.0

60%

calibrated 65.2% over 9.0 vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC avg total 19.4, omega 22.5.

Game Analysis

53.5% BOS posterior from Kalshi fusion holds as anchor despite extreme $593k whales on PHI (25 wallets, institutional). Net injuries +1.9% BOS (PHI -9.7% w/ Anthony/McGowan DTD). No pitchers/weather caps edges; Sanchez (2.11 ERA) projects K upside vs depleted BOS. Run line favors PHI +1.5 in projected 4.7-4.3 game.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model proj 1.3 hits on .293 BA, favorable PHI matchup no ace SP.

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

Model proj 0.2 HR despite 8 season, day-to-day injury risk reduces at-bats.

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Under 1.5 rbis 57%

Model proj 1.0 RBI on 23 season pace, injury limits lineup spot.

PROP ALERT

Connelly Early Boston Red Sox

Over 5.5 strikeouts 56%

Model proj 6.1 K on 3.16 ERA/39 K pace vs PHI lineup.

PROP ALERT

Roman Anthony Boston Red Sox

Under 1.5 total_bases 54%

Model proj 1.1 TB, 10-day IL recovery limits output.

PROP ALERT

Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Model proj 1.9 TB leveraging .293 BA in high total spot.

PROP ALERT

Connelly Early Boston Red Sox

Under 0.5 hits 55%

Model proj 0.3 hits as SP vs PHI bats.

PROP ALERT

Danny Coulombe Boston Red Sox

Over 2.5 strikeouts 53%

Model proj 2.9 K bullpen usage, 15-day IL but assume available.

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 hits 59%

Model proj 1.4 hits on .350 BA vs BOS pitching injuries.

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 home_runs 56%

Model proj 0.6 HR on 17 season pace in hitter-friendly total projection.

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 rbis 58%

Model proj 1.8 RBI on 28 season pace, top order spot.

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Over 5.5 strikeouts 57%

Model proj 6.3 K on 2.11 ERA vs BOS offense.

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Model proj 2.0 TB leveraging .350 BA in projected high-scoring game.

PROP ALERT

Kyle Backhus Philadelphia Phillies

Under 3.5 strikeouts 54%

Model proj 2.8 K reliever, 15-day IL limits innings.

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Under 0.5 hits 55%

Model proj 0.4 hits as SP.

PROP ALERT

Rene Pinto Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 strikeouts 53%

Model proj 1.9 K bullpen, day-to-day but high leverage.

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