Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Miami Marlins
1.5
Market Consensus fair home cover 56.1% vs market implies ~40%
Ω Bottom Line
Marlins ML +123 (+2pp Bayesian edge, +4.4EV); Over 8.0 +15.2pp posterior (65% vs 50%)
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Miami Marlins
calibrated 46.8% vs market 44.8% (+2pp edge)
SPREAD
Miami Marlins
Line: 1.5
Market Consensus fair home cover 56.1% vs market implies ~40%
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.0
Per-bet posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp edge)
Game Analysis
Phillies get sharp 19% spread edge + extreme $366k whale volume on -2.2 despite fair value 41.2% cover; injuries hit Marlins harder (-10% lambda). Neutral Bayesian ML but +50% EV on spread. Totals weak model, slight under fair value.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Xavier Edwards
Miami Marlins
Over 1.5 hits
60%
Model proj 1.7 hits (.336 BA leader, favorable matchup)
PROP ALERT
Liam Hicks
Miami Marlins
Under 0.5 home_runs
58%
HR leader but low projection 0.3 vs avg park
PROP ALERT
Max Meyer
Miami Marlins
Over 5.5 strikeouts
62%
2.68 ERA leader, proj 6.1 K vs Phils lineup
PROP ALERT
Sandy Alcantara
Miami Marlins
Over 4.5 strikeouts
59%
Proj 4.8 K, solid vs Phils (no pitcher confirmed)
PROP ALERT
Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies
Over 0.5 home_runs
60%
11 HR leader, proj 0.6 in high total spot
PROP ALERT
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies
Over 1.5 hits
59%
.304 BA leader, proj 1.7 vs Marlins
PROP ALERT
Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 1.5 rbis
57%
20 RBI leader but proj 1.1 w/park adj
PROP ALERT
Cristopher Sanchez
Philadelphia Phillies
Over 5.0 strikeouts
61%
2.90 ERA leader, proj 5.5 K
PROP ALERT
Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
Power proj 1.8 TB high total game