Home › Intel Briefs › Philadelphia Union at Charlotte FC

Philadelphia Union at Charlotte FC

MLS April 04, 2026 11:30 PM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Union
0.5
Omega spread 0.0 vs market CLT -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge to PHI +0.5
Ω Bottom Line
PHI +0.5 & ML +205: omega spread 0.0 vs mkt -0.5 (0.5pt edge), 55% win prob = +3.2 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD
Philadelphia Union
Line: 0.5
65%
Omega spread 0.0 vs market CLT -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge to PHI +0.5
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Union
65%
Our 55% PHI win prob vs market-implied 32.9% (breakeven 33%, exceeds by 22%)
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
58%
Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 (10.5pt edge signals model-projected high scoring)

Game Analysis

Omega spread even at 0.0 vs market CLT -0.5 signals value on Union +0.5 (-135) with 0.5pt edge; ML +220 at 55% our prob crushes 31% breakeven amid Union's perfect road draw record. Poisson totals wildly off at 13.0 (ignore); default MLS under 2.5 but totals losing across tiers. Charlotte 2-2-1 lacks home conviction vs unbeaten-away Union.

Game Theory & Utilization

Omega spread even at 0.0 vs market CLT -0.5 signals value on Union +0.5 (-135) with 0.5pt edge; ML +220 at 55% our prob crushes 31% breakeven amid Union's perfect road draw record. Poisson totals wildly off at 13.0 (ignore); default MLS under 2.5 but totals losing across tiers. Charlotte 2-2-1 lacks home conviction vs unbeaten-away Union.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Pep Biel Charlotte FC
Over 0.5 goals 62%
4 goals in 5 matches projects 0.8 avg, model line 0.5
PROP ALERT
Wilfried Zaha Charlotte FC
Over 1.0 shots_on_target 60%
High-usage winger projects 1.2 SOT vs Union defense
PROP ALERT
Milan Iloski Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 goals 61%
1 goal in 5 matches projects below 0.5 line
PROP ALERT
Frankie Westfield Philadelphia Union
Over 0.0 assists 59%
2 assists in 5 matches for model projection
PROP ALERT
Ashley Westwood Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target 63%
Midfielder usage low vs PHI, projects under
PROP ALERT
Andrew Johnson Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 goals 60%
Secondary forward projects below line
PROP ALERT
Alejandro Bedoya Philadelphia Union
Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%
Veteran midfielder low SOT projection
PROP ALERT
Nathan Harriel Philadelphia Union
Over 0.0 shots_on_target 58%
Defender with occasional set-piece threat
PROP ALERT
Luca de la Torre Charlotte FC
Over 0.5 shots_on_target 61%
Midfield creator projects above line
PROP ALERT
Indiana Vassilev Philadelphia Union
Under 0.5 goals 64%
Limited scoring threat early season
PROP ALERT
Tim Ream Charlotte FC
Under 0.0 shots_on_target 65%
CB minimal attacking projection
PROP ALERT
Jesús Bueno Philadelphia Union
Over 0.0 assists 59%
Playmaker with assist upside
Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail