Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
TOTAL
OVER
2.5
Over posterior 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp); OMEGA total, expected 3.8-3.8, Dixon-Coles 6.4 total
Ω Bottom Line
Market 2.5 total vs model 7.5 (+14.9% over edge); NER +160 ML +8.5pp w/ extreme whale steam
All OMEGA Picks
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
Over posterior 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp); OMEGA total, expected 3.8-3.8, Dixon-Coles 6.4 total
Game Analysis
Market total 2.5 vs Omega 7.5/Dixon-Coles 6.4 exposes +14.9pp over edge in high-proj 3.8-3.8 game. NER home ML +8.5pp value at +160 backed by EXTREME $474k whales despite Kalshi away. Spread even per Omega/MC +0.2 home margin, but juice kills EV; data degraded caps conf.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Matt Turner
New England Revolution
Over 3.5 saves
60%
Model proj high-scoring game (7.5 total), GK usage up vs PHI attack
PROP ALERT
Andrew Farrell
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 shots_on_goal
58%
Defender low volume, PHI strong attack but Farrell positional
PROP ALERT
Damario Mcintosh
New England Revolution
Under 1.0 shots_on_goal
55%
Backup/low usage in projected even matchup
PROP ALERT
Ilay Feingold
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 goals
62%
Mid/low scorer, home form but PHI defense
PROP ALERT
Tanner Beason
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 shots_on_goal
57%
Defender profile, minimal shots expected
PROP ALERT
Andre Blake
Philadelphia Union
Over 3.0 saves
61%
Away GK faces home attack projecting 3.8 goals
PROP ALERT
Alejandro Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
Over 1.0 shots_on_goal
59%
Veteran mid usage up in high-total proj game
PROP ALERT
Olwethu Makhanya
Philadelphia Union
Under 0.5 shots_on_goal
58%
Limited role in away spot
PROP ALERT
Nathan Harriel
Philadelphia Union
Over 0.0 goals
55%
Occasional set-piece threat in model high total
PROP ALERT
Indiana Vassilev
Philadelphia Union
Under 1.5 shots_on_goal
60%
Poor away form adjustment