Philadelphia Union at Orlando City SC

MLS May 13, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Orlando City SC

0.5

OMEGA spread vs market PHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge home side) + calibrated home value

Ω Bottom Line

ORL +200 ML +5.6pp Bayesian edge + $107k extreme whales home, over 2.5 +14.9pp (64.9% posterior) on 6.4-7.5 model totals

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Orlando City SC

Line: 0.5

60%

OMEGA spread vs market PHI -0.5 (0.5pt edge home side) + calibrated home value

MONEYLINE

Orlando City SC

62%

calibrated 38.9% vs market 33.3% (+5.6pp edge) + Omega ML home +140 vs market +200

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

65%

Posterior over 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge); Omega/MC project 6.4-7.5 total

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion +5.6pp home ML edge (38.9% vs 33.3% implied) with MC 42.8% home win in 10k sims proj 3.2-3.2; whales pile $99k on ORL at 90% conviction. Total mismatch glaring: omega/MC/Dixon-Coles all 6.4-7.6 vs market 2.5 (over 64.9% posterior). Spread marginal -EV on ORL +0.5 due to juice despite omega even line.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Martín Ojeda Orlando City SC

Over 0.5 goals 60%

7 goals in 12 matches (0.58 avg), high usage attacker vs poor PHI defense (model proj 0.65)

PROP ALERT

Iván Angulo Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 assists 62%

4 assists/12 (0.33 avg), secondary creator (model proj 0.25)

PROP ALERT

Martín Ojeda Orlando City SC

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Team leader shots, model proj 1.8 vs PHI allowing 4.2 SOG/game

PROP ALERT

Maxime Crépeau Orlando City SC

Over 3.0 saves 59%

48 saves leader, PHI pace projects 12 SOG (model 3.4 saves)

PROP ALERT

Braian Ojeda Orlando City SC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Midfield volume, model proj 0.8

PROP ALERT

Wilder Cartagena Orlando City SC

Under 1.0 shots_on_goal 57%

Defensive mid low volume (model proj 0.7)

PROP ALERT

Adrián Marín Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Defender rare SOT (model proj 0.2)

PROP ALERT

Eduard Atuesta Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Mid avg 0.3, model proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Milan Iloski Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 goals 63%

2 goals/12 (0.17 avg), low usage (model proj 0.15)

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Bedoya Philadelphia Union

Over 0.5 assists 56%

3 assists/7 matches, vet creator (model proj 0.45)

PROP ALERT

Andre Blake Philadelphia Union

Over 2.5 saves 60%

24 saves leader, ORL pace projects 3.0 (model 2.9)

PROP ALERT

Olwethu Makhanya Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Defender low shots (model proj 0.3)

PROP ALERT

Indiana Vassilev Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 goals 61%

Secondary forward (model proj 0.25)

PROP ALERT

Jesús Bueno Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Mid low creator role (model proj 0.2)

PROP ALERT

Olivier Mbaizo Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

FB minimal shots (model proj 0.15)

PROP ALERT

Geiner Martínez Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Low volume (model proj 0.3)

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