Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls
Ω
OMEGA PICK
66%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns
-10.5
Bulls missing Simons (OUT) + 4 day-to-day (Giddey/Buzelis/Sexton), Suns only 2 OUT; sharp 0.7% edge on away
Ω Bottom Line
Bulls injury apocalypse (Simons OUT + Giddey DTD) vs sharp over steam +66% EV; Suns -10.5 1u, over 239.5 1.5u
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns
Line: -10.5
Bulls missing Simons (OUT) + 4 day-to-day (Giddey/Buzelis/Sexton), Suns only 2 OUT; sharp 0.7% edge on away
TOTAL
over
Line: 239.5
Strong sharp signal 20.8% over divergence + +66% EV on Bovada over +240 vs Pinnacle fair 48.8%
Game Analysis
Bulls gutted by 5 key outs (Richards/Simons/Smith/Collins/Essengue) handing Suns -10.5 despite own injuries; Giddey triple-double projection carries depleted CHI but Suns' Booker (26pts) + Green dominate. Model sees 78% Suns win prob but -520 ML negative EV (-4.2/100); spread +3.8 EV best play. Total 234.5 over lean on pace bump from thin rosters.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls
Over 17.0 points
62%
Team leader day-to-day but high usage if plays; model projection matches avg
PROP ALERT
Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls
Over 9.0 rebounds
60%
Rebounding leader, increased role with injuries to Simons/Sexton
PROP ALERT
Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls
Over 8.5 assists
64%
Triple-double threat, primary ball-handler with multiple injuries
PROP ALERT
Collin Sexton
Chicago Bulls
Under 15.5 points
58%
Day-to-day, reduced role behind Giddey if limited minutes
PROP ALERT
Anfernee Simons
Chicago Bulls
Under 18.0 points
65%
OUT, zero projection but line assumes possible return
PROP ALERT
Matas Buzelis
Chicago Bulls
Under 12.5 points
59%
Day-to-day rookie, limited usage even healthy
PROP ALERT
Collin Sexton
Chicago Bulls
Under 3.5 assists
61%
Day-to-day, secondary creator behind Giddey
PROP ALERT
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over 26.0 points
65%
Star leader vs depleted Bulls backcourt, usage spike
PROP ALERT
Dillon Brooks
Phoenix Suns
Over 13.0 points
58%
Spot-up role expands with Coffey/Highsmith OUT