Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Ω
DDN SI PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns
2.5
Warriors are missing Porzingis, Horford, Moody, Santos and Brandon Williams, gutting their frontcourt depth against a market line that still favors them by 2.5.
Ω Bottom Line
Warriors down 5 rotation players vs Suns down 1 — Suns +2.5/+120 carries +$5.7 EV at 54% model probability.
All DDN SI Picks
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns
Line: 2.5
Warriors are missing Porzingis, Horford, Moody, Santos and Brandon Williams, gutting their frontcourt depth against a market line that still favors them by 2.5.
MONEYLINE
Phoenix Suns
+120 implies 45.5% while roster health (5 GSW outs vs 1 PHX out) supports roughly a 54% Suns win probability — positive equity on an underdog price.
Game Analysis
Curry, Draymond, Porzingis and Moody all out for GSW is a 20-25% team-strength hit, so the omega_model line puts the Suns at -4.5 road favorites (projected -163 ML). Best-estimate combined score is ~221-222, below the projected 224.5 total, with the under as the only directional lean above minimum confidence. No market prices exist to measure edge against — treat all of this as display information; unit sizes are all PASS.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors
Over 29.5 points
58%
Model projection only — with 5 rotation outs (Porzingis, Horford, Moody, Santos, Williams), Curry absorbs maximum usage and minutes as the lone elite scorer on the roster.
PROP ALERT
Draymond Green
Golden State Warriors
Over 9.5 rebounds
57%
Model projection only — Porzingis, Horford and Santos all out forces Green into meaningful center minutes, pushing his rebound load toward 9-10 per game.
PROP ALERT
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over 27.5 points
56%
Model projection only — Booker remains the undisputed primary option; thin Warriors wing depth (Moody out) leaves limited perimeter defenders fresh to contest him.
PROP ALERT
Jalen Green
Phoenix Suns
Over 19.5 points
55%
Model projection only — secondary launch valve with Mark Williams (rim gravity) out; thin home rotation should concede penetration attempts.