Portland Timbers at CF Montréal

MLS May 13, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Portland Timbers

0.5

Omega spread even (0.0) vs market MTL -0.5, MC POR +0.5 cover 56.8%

Ω Bottom Line

Over 3.5 +13.7pp edge (posterior 63.7%, expected 6.6-7.5 total) + POR ML +245 (73 EV vs 50% model prob)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Portland Timbers

Line: 0.5

57%

Omega spread even (0.0) vs market MTL -0.5, MC POR +0.5 cover 56.8%

MONEYLINE

Portland Timbers

50%

Posterior 50.2% vs market 29% implied, +2.6pp calibrated edge on away ML

TOTAL

over

Line: 3.5

62%

Posterior over 63.7% (+13.7pp edge), omega/MC/Dixon totals 6.6-7.5 vs market 3.5

Game Analysis

Models crush market total: Omega 7.5/MC 6.6/Dixon 6.4 vs 3.5 line despite 51F temps. POR +0.5 has edge at even omega spread 0.0 (MC POR cover 58%). Away ML +245 offers 73 EV% vs 50% posterior but high variance caps unit.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Iván Jaime CF Montréal

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Midfielder low goal projection in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Matthew Longstaff CF Montréal

Under 0.5 assists 60%

Model projects minimal creative output

PROP ALERT

Samuel Piette CF Montréal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Defensive mid low SOT projection

PROP ALERT

Luca Petrasso CF Montréal

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 61%

Fullback matchup limits chances

PROP ALERT

Jalen Neal CF Montréal

Under 0.5 goals 64%

Defender zero goal projection

PROP ALERT

Brayan Vera CF Montréal

Over 0.0 assists 55%

Occasional overlap potential

PROP ALERT

Sébastian Breza CF Montréal

Over 3.5 saves 59%

High expected shots in model total 6.6+

PROP ALERT

Thomas Gillier CF Montréal

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Backup low usage projection

PROP ALERT

Diego Chará Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 assists 63%

Veteran DM limited creativity

PROP ALERT

Finn Surman Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Defender low attacking projection

PROP ALERT

James Pantemis Portland Timbers

Over 3.0 saves 58%

Expected high shots from Poisson lambdas

PROP ALERT

Zac McGraw Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 goals 65%

CB no goal threat

PROP ALERT

Joao Ortiz Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Young mid low projection

PROP ALERT

Eric Miller Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

RB limited opportunities

PROP ALERT

Juan Mosquera Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Depth player low usage

PROP ALERT

Kamal Miller Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

Defender conservative projection

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