Red Bull New York at CF Montréal

MLS April 18, 2026 06:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

54% Lean

SPREAD

Red Bull New York

0.5

Whale signal supports NY cover (win + draw = 63%) but -195 juice destroys EV

Ω Bottom Line

NYRB ML -155: $503K extreme whale volume (91% conf), model 66% prob = +8.6 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Red Bull New York

Line: 0.5

54%

Whale signal supports NY cover (win + draw = 63%) but -195 juice destroys EV

MONEYLINE

Red Bull New York

66%

Extreme institutional whale action ($503k vol, 91% conviction) pushes our 66% prob over 60.8% breakeven

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

52%

MLS avg 2.8 gpg < 3.5 total but historical model 48.7% WR on totals kills edge

Game Analysis

Extreme institutional whale action ($503k vol, 91% on NYRB) drives edge in data-poor early MLS spot with no injuries/situational flags. Model prob 65% away win beats -160 breakeven; +0.5 even stronger at 80% cover prob. Under 3.5 aligns with league avg 2.8 goals, totals weak historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Emil Forsberg Red Bull New York

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 62%

High-usage midfielder projects above line vs MTL backline (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Emil Forsberg Red Bull New York

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Set-piece threat in low-scoring affair (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Ethan Horvath Red Bull New York

Over 3.0 saves 60%

MTL expected 10 shots faced (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Tim Parker Red Bull New York

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

CB minimal attacking volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Dylan Nealis Red Bull New York

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 63%

Defender low usage (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Justin Che Red Bull New York

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

FB rarely shoots on target (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Robert Voloder Red Bull New York

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Depth defender (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Matthew Dos Santos Red Bull New York

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Midfield rotation minutes (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Sébastian Breza CF Montréal

Over 3.5 saves 61%

NYRB projects 11-12 shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Samuel Piette CF Montréal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 65%

Defensive mid minimal shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Iván Jaime CF Montréal

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Attack mid usage (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Luca Petrasso CF Montréal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

LB low volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Brayan Vera CF Montréal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 63%

CB profile (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Tomás Avilés CF Montréal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Depth defender (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Matthew Longstaff CF Montréal

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Midfield insertion (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jalen Neal CF Montréal

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

Defensive role (model projection)

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