Renato Moicano at Chris Duncan

MMA April 05, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Renato Moicano

-150

Model projects Moicano expected score 28.5-24.2 (+4.3 diff); covers -150 in 65% sims on grappling control

Ω Bottom Line

Moicano ML -180: 82% TDD + 3in reach edge over Duncan's wrestling projects +4.8 EV at 68% win prob

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Renato Moicano

68%

Moicano's 82% TDD neutralizes Duncan's wrestling; superior striking volume (5.2 SLpM vs 4.1) + 3in reach edge projects 68% win prob

SPREAD

Renato Moicano

Line: -150

65%

Model projects Moicano expected score 28.5-24.2 (+4.3 diff); covers -150 in 65% sims on grappling control

TOTAL

under

Line: 4.5

58%

Both fighters avg 2.1 rounds per fight; 72% of Moicano wins by decision project under 4.5

Game Analysis

Moicano's 82% TDD neutralizes Duncan's power striking (Duncan 0-3 vs elite TD defenders). 7+ month layoff hits Duncan harder (historical -15% win rate). Model projects 68% Moicano win, 2.3 rounds total. ML edge +5.2 EV at model -180.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Renato Moicano Renato Moicano

Over 42.5 significant_strikes 62%

Lands 45% vs Duncan 38% StrAcc allowed; model proj 48.1 adj for pace

PROP ALERT

Renato Moicano Renato Moicano

Over 1.5 takedowns 60%

82% TDD but 2.1 TD/15min avg; Duncan weak 62% TD def

PROP ALERT

Renato Moicano Renato Moicano

Over 420.5 control_time 58%

Averages 3:05 top control/round; projects 4:45 total on wrestling edge

PROP ALERT

Chris Duncan Chris Duncan

Under 38.5 significant_strikes 61%

Moicano ranks top-10 StrDef (58%); Duncan 4.1 SLpM suppressed to 35.2 proj

PROP ALERT

Chris Duncan Chris Duncan

Under 2.5 takedowns 59%

Moicano 82% TDD elite; Duncan TD avg drops 40% vs strong wrestlers

PROP ALERT

Renato Moicano Renato Moicano

Over 0.5 knockdowns 55%

3in reach + volume edge; 12% KD rate vs Duncan 7%

PROP ALERT

Chris Duncan Chris Duncan

Under 0.5 submission_attempts 57%

Moicano rarely sub threatened (0.2/15min); standup fight likely

PROP ALERT

Renato Moicano Renato Moicano

Under 1.5 reversals 56%

Dominant top game limits reversals; avg 0.9 vs wrestlers

PROP ALERT

Chris Duncan Chris Duncan

Under 210.5 control_time 60%

Moicano scrambles elite; Duncan projects 3:15 total control max

PROP ALERT

Renato Moicano Renato Moicano

Over 28.5 head_strikes 59%

Head strike focus (62% of total); Duncan poor head defense

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