Ricky Simon at Adrian Yanez OMEGA Picks — March 28, 2026

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MONEYLINE

Adrian Yanez

68%

Yanez 4" reach advantage + superior striking volume (5.2 SLpM vs Simon 3.8) projects 12% striking edge

SPREAD

Adrian Yanez

Line: -155

65%

Model projects Yanez decision win probability 48% vs implied 42%

TOTAL

Under 2.5

Line: 2.5

64%

Simon wrestling style forces 68% of his fights to decision (under 2.5)

Game Analysis

Yanez's 4" reach + 5.2 SLpM overwhelms Simon's 3.8 volume and 42% TDD, projecting 62% win prob vs model -160. Simon forces decisions in 68% starts but Yanez striking defense caps his output at 28 SSm. Under 2.5 hits 65% in grappler vs striker matchups with these metrics.

Game Theory & Utilization

Yanez's 4" reach + 5.2 SLpM overwhelms Simon's 3.8 volume and 42% TDD, projecting 62% win prob vs model -160. Simon forces decisions in 68% starts but Yanez striking defense caps his output at 28 SSm. Under 2.5 hits 65% in grappler vs striker matchups with these metrics.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Adrian Yanez Adrian Yanez

Over 52.5 significant_strikes 60%

Simon ranks bottom-15% significant strike defense; Yanez 5.2 SLpM projects +8% over matchup avg

PROP ALERT

Adrian Yanez Adrian Yanez

Under 1.5 takedown_attempts 58%

Elite sprawl (82% TD defense) vs Simon wrestling; model projects 0.9 attempts landed

PROP ALERT

Ricky Simon Ricky Simon

Over 4.5 takedown_attempts 62%

Simon 42% career volume reliant on wrestling vs Yanez weaker TD defense (68%)

PROP ALERT

Ricky Simon Ricky Simon

Under 32.5 significant_strikes 59%

Yanez top-20 striking defense limits volume grapplers; projects 28 SSm

PROP ALERT

Adrian Yanez Adrian Yanez

Under 1.5 control_time 57%

Stance-switching limits grappling exposure vs Simon pressure

PROP ALERT

Ricky Simon Ricky Simon

Over 4.5 control_time 61%

Simon averages 5:12 control time when shooting volume exceeds 4 attempts