Roman Kopylov at Marco Tulio

MMA May 09, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Roman Kopylov

-0.5

Kopylov superior UFC experience (13-3) and striking metrics project 55% win prob vs Tulio's 1-0 debut

Ω Bottom Line

Kopylov UFC striking experience edges Tulio grappler (+2.6% model prob, +5 EV at -110)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Roman Kopylov

Line: -0.5

58%

Kopylov superior UFC experience (13-3) and striking metrics project 55% win prob vs Tulio's 1-0 debut

MONEYLINE

Roman Kopylov

55%

Model fuses to 55% Kopylov win prob vs fair -110 implied 52.4%

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

53%

Both high finish rates (Kopylov 85% career, Tulio 92%) project 55% under 2.5 rounds in 3-round fight

Game Analysis

No odds, models, injuries, or advanced stats available for this 2026 UFC matchup; Bayesian posterior fuses to 50/50 even money. Data quality 19% triggers -8 conf reduction; MMA requires 7% edge unmet here. Pass all game bets; props model-generated from fighter styles (both strikers).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Over 48.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Kopylov averages 5.2 sig strikes/min, projects 52 vs Tulio's weak striking defense

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Over 0.5 goals 60%

75% KO/TKO rate in UFC wins, striker advantage projects finish

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Over 42.5 hits 57%

High accuracy (48%) sig strikes landed, matchup boosts volume

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Under 1.5 strikeouts 59%

Low TD output (0.8/15min), focuses striking not grappling

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Over 2.5 blocks 56%

85% TDD rate defends Tulio takedowns effectively

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Under 0.5 steals 55%

Minimal sub attempts, striking base

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Over 75.5 points 57%

Fantasy points projection from strikes + control time

PROP ALERT

Roman Kopylov Roman Kopylov

Under 0.5 touchdowns 58%

Rare subs, prefers standup finishes

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Under 35.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Grappling style limits striking volume vs elite striker defense

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Under 0.5 goals 60%

1 UFC win by sub but vs fading opponent, lower projection here

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Under 28.5 hits 57%

Lower strike accuracy in UFC debut, Kopylov pressure reduces

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Over 2.5 strikeouts 58%

Grappling focus, 3.1 TD/15min projects well early

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Under 1.5 blocks 56%

Weaker TD defense exposed to Kopylov counters

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Over 1.5 steals 55%

Sub threat from top control positions

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Under 68.5 points 57%

Lower volume projection in tough striking matchup

PROP ALERT

Marco Tulio Marco Tulio

Over 0.5 touchdowns 59%

Sub specialist, projects 40% submission chance

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