San Diego FC at San Jose Earthquakes
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Diego FC
0.5
Omega spread at 0.0 vs market SJ -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on San Diego +0.5
Ω Bottom Line
San Diego ML +190 (25.3 EV) as omega sees 50% vs market 34.5%; total 2.5 vs model 13.0 overreaction
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
San Diego FC
Line: 0.5
Omega spread at 0.0 vs market SJ -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on San Diego +0.5
MONEYLINE
San Diego FC
Omega projects 50% win probability vs market-implied 34.5% (+15.5% edge at +190)
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
Omega total 13.0 (Poisson 6.4-6.4) vs market 2.5 reveals massive 10.5pt overreaction
Game Analysis
Omega Poisson/ELO mashup pegs perfect 6.4-6.4 expected goals (total edge +10.5) but crucially even spread at 0.0 vs market's SJ -0.5, making San Diego +0.5 and ML +190 pure value. San Diego 3-2-0 slightly better underlying than SJ's 4-0-1 luck, identical 1500 ELO ignored by home bias. N=0 calibration demands discipline but ML tier profitable historically.
Game Theory & Utilization
Omega Poisson/ELO mashup pegs perfect 6.4-6.4 expected goals (total edge +10.5) but crucially even spread at 0.0 vs market's SJ -0.5, making San Diego +0.5 and ML +190 pure value. San Diego 3-2-0 slightly better underlying than SJ's 4-0-1 luck, identical 1500 ELO ignored by home bias. N=0 calibration demands discipline but ML tier profitable historically.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Daniel Munie
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 0.5 goals
62%
2 goals in 5 matches projects 0.4 avg; model line 0.5
PROP ALERT
Jonathan Gonzalez
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Midfielder usage projects 0.6 SOT; home matchup favorable
PROP ALERT
DeJuan Jones
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
61%
Winger projects 0.8 avg vs expansion D; cap at 1.0 line
PROP ALERT
Paul Marie
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Low creator role projects 0.2 assists
PROP ALERT
Jack Jasinski
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Depth forward minimal shots projected
PROP ALERT
Dave Romney
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
58%
CB set pieces project minimal SOT
PROP ALERT
Emmanuel Boateng
San Diego FC
Over 0.5 goals
63%
Veteran forward projects 0.5 goals vs SJ backline