San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
-1.5
+41.5% EV on home spread per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (44.9% home cover) vs retail pricing
Ω Bottom Line
9.5 total vs model 22.5/MC 19.3 (+15pp over edge); Dodgers ML + whales/sharps (66% posterior, $562K volume)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
Line: -1.5
+41.5% EV on home spread per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (44.9% home cover) vs retail pricing
MONEYLINE
Los Angeles Dodgers
calibrated 66% home win vs 65% implied, exceeds breakeven despite juice
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.5
Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% market implied (+15.2pp edge) with OMEGA total and model projected 19.3
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior gives slim 65.6% to Dodgers ML vs -181 juice (breakeven 64.4%) confirmed by extreme $562K whale volume on home and 14.8% sharp spread edge. Total 9.5 is wildly undervalued—MC projects 19.5, over posterior 65.2% for +24 EV despite totals' poor historical 48.7% WR. MC slight away lean (47.9%) and very low model agreement cap conf at 60-64; equal -6.9% injuries neutral.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Andy Pages
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1.0 hits
58%
Season .333 AVG, model projects 1.2 hits vs Giants SP (model est weak K%)
PROP ALERT
Max Muncy
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 0.5 home_runs
60%
10 HR pace but 0.3 avg last10, Giants park suppresses HR
PROP ALERT
Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1.5 total_bases
60%
High usage hitter, projects 2.1 TB in high total spot
PROP ALERT
Freddie Freeman
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1.0 hits
59%
Consistent contact hitter vs RHP, matchup boost
PROP ALERT
Justin Wrobleski
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 4.5 strikeouts
57%
2.42 ERA leader, Giants high K% lineup
PROP ALERT
Teoscar Hernandez
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 0.5 rbis
56%
Power bat in cleanup, high scoring projection
PROP ALERT
Will Smith
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 0.5 hits
58%
Strong vs RHP, model usage up w/injuries
PROP ALERT
Mookie Betts
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 1.5 total_bases
55%
IL return risk, rusty projection
PROP ALERT
Heliot Ramos
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.5 total_bases
59%
18 RBI pace, hot streak vs LAD pitching
PROP ALERT
Casey Schmitt
San Francisco Giants
Under 0.5 home_runs
60%
6 HR total, Dodger Stadium under bias for power
PROP ALERT
Luis Arraez
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.5 hits
60%
.310 AVG specialist, weak LAD SP matchup
PROP ALERT
Matt Chapman
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
Power vs RHP, high total environment
PROP ALERT
Jung Hoo Lee
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.0 hits
56%
Contact skills shine in projected overs
PROP ALERT
Patrick Bailey
San Francisco Giants
Over 0.5 hits
59%
Catcher hot vs LAD, injury cascade usage
PROP ALERT
Camilo Doval
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.5 strikeouts
55%
Closer role in close game projection