San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
65%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
-1.5
+35.4% EV per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (54.1% cover) vs retail; strong RLM sharp signal
Ω Bottom Line
Dodgers -1.5 +35.4% EV on sharp divergence/RLM/whale steam vs overjuiced market; over 9.0 65% posterior (MC 19.5 total)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers
Line: -1.5
+35.4% EV per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (54.1% cover) vs retail; strong RLM sharp signal
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.0
Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.5 total, omega 22.5 vs market 9.0
Game Analysis
Omega even spread vs market Dodgers -2.2 creates +6.3pp Giants cover edge (posterior 56.3%), confirmed by MC Giants -0.3 margin but countered by sharp home/ whale extreme on Dodgers. Total mismatch huge: model 22.5/MC 19.5 vs 9.5 yields +15.2pp over (65.2%). Injuries equal -6.9% both; VERY_LOW agreement caps conf despite EV pop.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Andy Pages
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1.0 hits
58%
Model proj 1.2 hits; .333 BA leader, high pace matchup
PROP ALERT
Max Muncy
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 0.5 home_runs
55%
10 HR leader; omega high scoring game boosts HR prob
PROP ALERT
Andy Pages
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
35 hits leader; projected usage in weak Giants SP matchup
PROP ALERT
Justin Wrobleski
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 5.5 strikeouts
60%
2.42 ERA leader; Giants injuries cascade to weaker lineup
PROP ALERT
Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 2.0 total_bases
59%
High-usage star; model high total favors power output
PROP ALERT
Mookie Betts
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1.0 hits
56%
Consistent contact hitter; favorable omega scoring env
PROP ALERT
Freddie Freeman
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 0.5 rbis
55%
Cleanup protection; high run env projection
PROP ALERT
Justin Wrobleski
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 4.5 strikeouts
54%
Recent form regression; Giants contact-heavy
PROP ALERT
Luis Arraez
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.5 hits
58%
.310 BA leader; weak Dodgers SP injuries boost
PROP ALERT
Casey Schmitt
San Francisco Giants
Under 0.5 home_runs
57%
6 HR modest; model regresses in high-var total
PROP ALERT
Heliot Ramos
San Francisco Giants
Over 0.5 hits
56%
18 hits; omega even matchup favors contact
PROP ALERT
Robbie Ray
San Francisco Giants
Over 5.5 strikeouts
60%
2.76 ERA; Dodgers injuries increase K upside
PROP ALERT
Matt Chapman
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.5 total_bases
55%
Power bat; high total projection
PROP ALERT
Robbie Ray
San Francisco Giants
Under 6.5 strikeouts
53%
Recent regression risk vs Dodgers lineup
PROP ALERT
Casey Schmitt
San Francisco Giants
Over 1.0 total_bases
56%
HR leader; model high output game