San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB May 14, 2026 02:10 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

53% Lean

SPREAD

San Francisco Giants

1.5

model 52.9% Giants cover +0 (HIGH edge conf) vs market extreme LAD pricing; OMEGA spread

Ω Bottom Line

Giants +199 ML +20EV (models 40-53% win vs 29% implied), over 8 +14EV (65% posterior vs proj 20 runs)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

San Francisco Giants

Line: 1.5

53%

model 52.9% Giants cover +0 (HIGH edge conf) vs market extreme LAD pricing; OMEGA spread

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

65%

calibrated over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.6 / omega 22.5

Game Analysis

Omega even spread vs market Dodgers -2.2 with posterior 56% Giants cover; huge total mismatch (posterior 65% over 9.5, MC ~19.5 runs). Injuries balanced at -6.9% both sides, no pitcher data caps edges. Whales extreme home but sharp spread contradict reduces conviction; early CLV favors Giants side.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Leads team .318 AVG, model proj 1.3 hits vs LAD recent pace (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

11 HR season pace low per game, regression vs Giants SP (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

35 team lead (RBI/hits?), high usage home (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Justin Wrobleski Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

2.42 ERA recent 5K last10, Giants weak vs RHP (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Power hitter in cleanup, total proj 0.8 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Star usage high despite Pages leading avg (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Consistent leadoff, matchup favors (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Veteran avg hitter, home splits strong (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Luis Arraez San Francisco Giants

Over 1.5 hits 60%

.303 AVG contact king, proj 1.8 vs LAD (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Casey Schmitt San Francisco Giants

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

6 HR season low pace, Dodger Park neutral (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Heliot Ramos San Francisco Giants

Over 0.5 hits 58%

20 hits recent form, road splits ok (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Robbie Ray San Francisco Giants

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

2.76 ERA, Dodgers K-prone vs LHP (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Casey Schmitt San Francisco Giants

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Power potential in lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Heliot Ramos San Francisco Giants

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Middle order usage boost (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Matt Chapman San Francisco Giants

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Veteran 3B consistent vs RHP (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Patrick Bailey San Francisco Giants

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Catcher matchup edge (model-generated)

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