San Jose Earthquakes at Seattle Sounders FC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
54%
Lean
MONEYLINE
San Jose Earthquakes
None
Away ML posterior 53.5% vs market prior 48.8% (+4.7pp edge), MC away win 47%
Ω Bottom Line
SJ +235 ML (53.5% posterior vs 30% implied, +79 EV) + O2.5 (65% posterior, omega 7.5 total) despite whale steam on SEA
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
San Jose Earthquakes
Away ML posterior 53.5% vs market prior 48.8% (+4.7pp edge), MC away win 47%
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); OMEGA total, MC proj 6.6, Dixon-Coles 6.4 combined
Game Analysis
Omega Poisson projects inflated 3.8-3.8 lambda (total 7.5) vs market 2.5, yielding 64.9% over posterior (+14.9pp EV $23.9/100). SJ away ML +235 offers massive value at 53.5% posterior (vs 29.9% implied) despite omega -149 fair line and extreme whales on SEA ($205k). Spread neg EV both sides due to vig; pass with MC margin std dev 2.7 confirming variance. Data degraded (55%), cap at leans.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Albert Rusnák
Seattle Sounders FC
Over 0.5 assists
62%
Team leader 4 ass in 9 matches, high usage in projected high-scoring game (omega 7.5 total)
PROP ALERT
Cristian Roldan
Seattle Sounders FC
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
Midfield creator, benefits from pace-up turf and model high goals
PROP ALERT
Stefan Frei
Seattle Sounders FC
Over 3.0 saves
60%
GK faces SJ attack in high-total spot (MC 6.6 combined)
PROP ALERT
Jonathan Gonzalez
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 0.5 assists
59%
Midfield distributor in favorable scoring model
PROP ALERT
Daniel
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
60%
High volume shooter (leader metric 26)
PROP ALERT
Earl Edwards
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 2.5 saves
58%
Expects SEA shots in high-total game
PROP ALERT
Reid Roberts
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
62%
Defender low SOT (leader 578 mins low contrib)