San Jose Earthquakes at Toronto FC

MLS May 02, 2026 05:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Toronto FC

0.5

OMEGA spread vs market -0.5 SJ (0.5pt edge home); MC home +0.5 cover ~55% > implied 50%

Ω Bottom Line

Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 2.5 (+15pp over edge), even spread + SJ travel -15% = Toronto +0.5 value

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Toronto FC

Line: 0.5

55%

OMEGA spread vs market -0.5 SJ (0.5pt edge home); MC home +0.5 cover ~55% > implied 50%

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

60%

Posterior 64.9% over vs market 50% (+14.9pp); OMEGA total, MC proj 6.6, Dixon-Coles 12.8 combined

Game Analysis

Omega Poisson+ELO even at 3.8-3.8 despite SJ 9-0-1 form, market overprices away by 0.5pt on spread. Bayesian +3% home ML/+15% over 2.5 with Dixon-Coles 12.8 total; SJ cross-country travel -15% +3 timezones -10%. MC high edge conf but low agreement caps conviction; Kalshi bearish home (27.5%) contradicts slightly.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

William Yarbrough Toronto FC

Over 3.5 saves 62%

Model projection: MLS avg GK saves ~4.0 adj for matchup pace

PROP ALERT

Luka Gavran Toronto FC

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Model projection: backup GK sees similar volume in high-total spot

PROP ALERT

Matheus Pereira Toronto FC

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 65%

Model projection: winger avg low SOT vs solid SJ backline

PROP ALERT

Henry Wingo Toronto FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

Model projection: defender rarely shoots on target

PROP ALERT

Raheem Edwards Toronto FC

Under 0.5 goals 63%

Model projection: LB minimal scoring threat

PROP ALERT

Richie Laryea Toronto FC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: RB overlaps create SOT upside

PROP ALERT

Lazar Stefanovic Toronto FC

Under 0.5 goals 65%

Model projection: young defender no goals expected

PROP ALERT

Walker Zimmerman Toronto FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

Model projection: CB set-piece only

PROP ALERT

Daniel San Jose Earthquakes

Over 3.5 saves 61%

Model projection: GK faces Toronto shots in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Reid Roberts San Jose Earthquakes

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

Model projection: defender low volume

PROP ALERT

Jonathan Gonzalez San Jose Earthquakes

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 63%

Model projection: CM limited chances

PROP ALERT

Paul Marie San Jose Earthquakes

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: FB attacking role in high total

PROP ALERT

DeJuan Jones San Jose Earthquakes

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Model projection: winger secondary scorer

PROP ALERT

Dave Romney San Jose Earthquakes

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 65%

Model projection: CB no threat

PROP ALERT

Vítor Costa San Jose Earthquakes

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: defender minimal

PROP ALERT

Jack Jasinski San Jose Earthquakes

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Model projection: sub/rotation low usage

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