San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks
Ω
OMEGA PICK
56%
Lean
SPREAD
Anaheim Ducks
-0.5
Recent H2H model 3-0 Sharks (Apr 2 sweep); Anaheim home ice + Celebrini (41G/66A/107P) vs depleted Sharks
Ω Bottom Line
Ducks ML +3.2 EV (54% model) Celebrini carries vs injured Sharks, recent H2H reverse home
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Anaheim Ducks
Line: -0.5
Recent H2H model 3-0 Sharks (Apr 2 sweep); Anaheim home ice + Celebrini (41G/66A/107P) vs depleted Sharks
MONEYLINE
Anaheim Ducks
Macklin Celebrini dominance (107 points) gives Anaheim edge in meaning late-season Pacific matchup
TOTAL
under
Line: 6.0
NHL variance + Anaheim injuries (Gauthier/Gudas out, Mrazek IR) cap scoring in low-data projection
Game Analysis
Model generates Anaheim ML -110 (54% win prob) off Celebrini (107P) edge vs Sharks missing Couture/Reaves; Ducks counter heavy injuries but home ice + recent model success vs both (12-8/12-10). H2H Apr 2 Sharks swept but now Ducks home in tight Pacific spot. Low-data game caps confidence at 55-58 despite +EV.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Macklin Celebrini
San Jose Sharks
Over 1.0 points
60%
League-leading 107 points, high-usage rookie star in rivalry game (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Macklin Celebrini
San Jose Sharks
Over 0.5 goals
58%
41 goals this season, projects over vs injury-hit Ducks D
PROP ALERT
Macklin Celebrini
San Jose Sharks
Over 0.5 assists
57%
66 assists, playmaking hub even with Couture IR
PROP ALERT
Jackson LaCombe
Anaheim Ducks
Over 0.5 points
55%
46 points from blue line, powerplay contributor
PROP ALERT
Cutter Gauthier
Anaheim Ducks
Under 0.5 points
60%
OUT injured, projects 0 points (model adjustment)
PROP ALERT
Macklin Celebrini
San Jose Sharks
Over 3.0 shots_on_goal
59%
High-volume shooter, rivalry boosts attempts
PROP ALERT
Jackson LaCombe
Anaheim Ducks
Over 1.5 blocks
56%
Defenseman projects hits/blocks vs Sharks attack
PROP ALERT
Ryan Reaves
San Jose Sharks
Under 0.5 points
61%
OUT injured, minimal scoring threat anyway
PROP ALERT
Petr Mrazek
Anaheim Ducks
Under 25.5 saves
55%
IR, backup goalie projects fewer shots faced
PROP ALERT
Macklin Celebrini
San Jose Sharks
Over 1.0 hockey_points
60%
Points = G+A, elite producer carries load