Sassuolo at Fiorentina

Serie A April 26, 2026 10:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Fiorentina

-0.5

Moderate whale consensus (100% home, $8k volume) + calibrated edge vs inefficient early Serie A lines

Ω Bottom Line

Fiorentina -0.5 (+5.1 EV) backed by moderate whales (100% home $8k) vs Sassuolo record overvalue

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Fiorentina

Line: -0.5

58%

Moderate whale consensus (100% home, $8k volume) + calibrated edge vs inefficient early Serie A lines

MONEYLINE

Fiorentina

60%

Breakeven 50% exceeded by 4% (our 54%) on +100 with whale confirmation; Sassuolo overvalued on record alone

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

54%

Low goal production from leaders (Kean/Pinamonti ~0.3 gpg) in mid-table matchup

Game Analysis

Fiorentina slight home edge with 55% model win prob vs 52% implied on ML, backed by DDN's 5-3 vs FIO/2-0 vs SAS. Spread -0.5 offers thin +2.8 EV at current -115. Under 2.5 leans on projected 2.2 goals but totals historically losing (51.2% lean WR). Poor data (21% quality) caps all at lean tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean Fiorentina

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Season 8 goals/26 matches (0.31 gpg); low vs mid-table defenses

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean Fiorentina

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

98 shots season total implies ~1.1 SOT avg; Sassuolo solid defensively

PROP ALERT

David de Gea Fiorentina

Over 3.5 saves 55%

Model proj 3.8 saves in expected 2.5 total game; Sassuolo attack volume

PROP ALERT

Marin Pongracic Fiorentina

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Defender minimal scoring threat (1643 minutes, 0 goals assumed)

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson Fiorentina

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Season 4 assists/28 low usage in low-scoring spot

PROP ALERT

Albert Gudmundsson Fiorentina

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Mid-table forward underperforms xG regression

PROP ALERT

Moise Kean Fiorentina

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Home usage boost in even matchup

PROP ALERT

David de Gea Fiorentina

Over 3.0 saves 56%

Expected shots faced 4+ in 2.5 total

PROP ALERT

Andrea Pinamonti Sassuolo

Under 0.5 goals 59%

8 goals/31 matches; poor conversion vs Fiorentina backline

PROP ALERT

Andrea Pinamonti Sassuolo

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

62 SOT season avg ~1.2; away road suppression

PROP ALERT

Armand Lauriente Sassuolo

Under 0.5 assists 58%

8 assists/33 matches low in low-pace spot

PROP ALERT

Arijanet Muric Sassuolo

Over 2.5 saves 55%

Away GK faces home pressure; model 2.9 saves

PROP ALERT

Nemanja Matic Sassuolo

Under 0.5 assists 60%

DM low creative output (1263 min); defensive focus

PROP ALERT

Armand Lauriente Sassuolo

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

High usage winger; matchup favors attempts

PROP ALERT

Andrea Pinamonti Sassuolo

Under 0.5 goals 58%

xG underperformance; Fiorentina altitude/travel neutral

PROP ALERT

Arijanet Muric Sassuolo

Over 3.0 saves 55%

Fiorentina home shots expected 4.5

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