Sassuolo at Torino

Serie A May 08, 2026 06:45 PM ET FINAL 1 - 2

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Sassuolo

-0.5

62.3% model win prob vs +155 spread implied 39.2% (equivalent to win prob for -0.5)

Ω Bottom Line

Sassuolo -0.5 +155: +58.9 EV (62% model win prob vs 39% implied)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Sassuolo

Line: -0.5

62%

62.3% model win prob vs +155 spread implied 39.2% (equivalent to win prob for -0.5)

Game Analysis

No quantitative edge as Bayesian posterior fuses to exact market match (Sassuolo 59.2% win prob). Sassuolo's 14-7-14 record edges Torino's 11-8-16 but home advantage offsets in stable line. Totals lean under 2.5 given Serie A ~2.6 gpg avg and no over signals; props capped low sans validated lines.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Giovanni Simeone Torino

Under 0.5 goals 58%

10 goals in 29 matches (0.34 gpg), projecting 0.3 vs Sassuolo matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Giovanni Simeone Torino

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Season shots ~2.4 gpg, SOT ~1.2 avg, Torino low pace (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nikola Vlasic Torino

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

High usage midfielder/winger, avg 0.6-0.8 SOT (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alberto Paleari Torino

Over 2.5 saves 57%

74 saves season avg ~2.5/game, Sassuolo attack projects shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Saúl Coco Torino

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 60%

Defender minimal shots, projects 0.1 SOT (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Giovanni Simeone Torino

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Consistent shooter, secondary volume play (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nikola Vlasic Torino

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Low goal threat, assists focus (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alberto Paleari Torino

Under 3.0 saves 56%

Home game lower shots faced avg (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Andrea Pinamonti Sassuolo

Under 0.5 goals 58%

8 goals in 33 matches (0.24 gpg), Torino defense solid (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Andrea Pinamonti Sassuolo

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

~2 gpg shots, 0.9 SOT avg (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Armand Laurienté Sassuolo

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

Winger volume but Torino limits wing (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Arijanet Muric Sassuolo

Over 2.5 saves 56%

117 saves season ~2.7/game, Torino attack (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nemanja Matic Sassuolo

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 60%

DM low shot volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Andrea Pinamonti Sassuolo

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Secondary striker volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Armand Laurienté Sassuolo

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Assist heavy, low goals (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Arijanet Muric Sassuolo

Under 3.0 saves 57%

Away game, Torino low shots (model projection)

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