Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

MLB May 08, 2026 11:40 PM ET FINAL 12 - 8

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Seattle Mariners

-1.5

calibrated shows model edge on away despite OMEGA spread, sharp 19.1% divergence

Ω Bottom Line

Mariners ML +6.8pp Bayesian edge (Hancock > Burke), over 8 +15pp despite whale contra

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Seattle Mariners

Line: -1.5

60%

calibrated shows model edge on away despite OMEGA spread, sharp 19.1% divergence

MONEYLINE

Seattle Mariners

60%

Posterior 59.8% exceeds de-vigged market 53.1% by 6.8pp (Hancock 2.59 ERA edges Burke 2.72)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

62%

Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge), MC projects 16.2 total

Game Analysis

White Sox ML +200 offers +21.5 EV (40.5% posterior > 33.3% omega-implied); extreme $842k whales (81% home) + MC 48% home cover at 0.0. Under 22.5 crushes at 79.7% MC (proj 18.9 runs) despite totals weakness. Low agreement + no pitchers reduces conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Model projection 0.3 HR vs line, cool 60F suppresses power

PROP ALERT

Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox

Under 1.5 rbis 57%

Season RBI leader but Hancock limits RISP, projection 1.2

PROP ALERT

Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox

Over 0.5 hits 56%

BA leader .278, model projects 0.9 hits vs Hancock

PROP ALERT

Sean Burke Chicago White Sox

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

2.72 ERA, Mariners K-prone, projection 5.1

PROP ALERT

Davis Martin Chicago White Sox

Over 3.5 strikeouts 55%

1.64 ERA leader, projection 4.0 but reliever usage

PROP ALERT

Sean Burke Chicago White Sox

Under 5.5 hits 58%

Low ERA limits H, Mariners weak vs RHP, proj 4.7

PROP ALERT

Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox

Under 1.5 total_bases 57%

Projection 1.4 TB, Hancock matchup adjustment

PROP ALERT

Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter proj 1.1 TB

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

2.59 ERA, White Sox high K%, proj 5.2

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

7 HR season, Burke suppresses LHB power, proj 0.3

PROP ALERT

Cole Young Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 57%

.276 BA leader, proj 0.8 vs Burke

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

Limited opps proj 0.4 RBI

PROP ALERT

Cole Young Seattle Mariners

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

Proj 1.2 TB

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Under 5.5 hits 59%

White Sox weak offense, proj 4.8 H allowed

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Under 1.5 total_bases 57%

Power suppressed in cool weather, proj 1.2

PROP ALERT

Cole Young Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

Low lineup spot proj 0.4

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