Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

MLB May 10, 2026 06:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Seattle Mariners

-2.2

Strong sharp divergence (19.3%) and +47.7% EV on away spread vs Market Consensus fair value (away cover 43.4%)

Ω Bottom Line

Mariners -2.2: 19.3% sharp spread edge +47.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away 43.4%) despite whale home action

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Seattle Mariners

Line: -2.2

58%

Strong sharp divergence (19.3%) and +47.7% EV on away spread vs Market Consensus fair value (away cover 43.4%)

MONEYLINE

Chicago White Sox

55%

Slight +EV (+0.1) as our 45.5% exceeds vigged breakeven (45.5%); extreme whale volume ($774k, 80% on home)

TOTAL

under

Line: 8.0

53%

Market Consensus fair value slight under lean (50.2%); totals historically losing (48.7% WR)

Game Analysis

Sharp money shows 19.3% spread edge on Mariners -2.2 (+47.7% EV at select books) despite whales ($774k extreme) on White Sox ML. Bayesian ML posteriors flat at 54.5% Mariners win prob (no edge), equal injuries (-7% both). Totals neutral/losing historically; low 8.0 line but no weather/pitchers to confirm under.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Season HR leader but low projection vs Mariners pitching matchup; model proj 0.3

PROP ALERT

Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox

Under 1.0 hits 58%

Model proj 0.8 hits; average usage in low-total game

PROP ALERT

Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Team BA leader .278; proj 0.9 hits home vs Mariners

PROP ALERT

Davis Martin Chicago White Sox

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

Strong 1.64 ERA, 43 K leader; proj 5.0 vs Mariners lineup

PROP ALERT

Davis Martin Chicago White Sox

Under 4.5 hits 56%

Model proj 4.0 hits allowed in low total

PROP ALERT

Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox

Under 1.0 total_bases 55%

Contact hitter proj 1.0 TB; neutral matchup

PROP ALERT

Munetaka Murakami Chicago White Sox

Under 0.5 rbis 60%

RBI leader 28 but low proj 0.4 in pitcher duel

PROP ALERT

Davis Martin Chicago White Sox

Under 5.5 total_games 57%

Proj 5.0 IP in low-scoring affair

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

Power hitter 7 HR but proj 0.3 vs White Sox arms

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Model proj 0.8 hits road game

PROP ALERT

Cole Young Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 58%

.276 BA leader proj 0.9 hits

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Over 4.0 strikeouts 60%

2.59 ERA proj 4.7 K vs White Sox

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Under 5.0 hits 57%

Proj 4.5 hits allowed low total

PROP ALERT

Cole Young Seattle Mariners

Under 1.0 total_bases 55%

Prospect proj 1.0 TB

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 rbis 59%

HR leader but low RBI proj 0.4

PROP ALERT

Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners

Under 5.5 total_games 56%

Proj 5.2 IP

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