Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

MLB May 13, 2026 12:10 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Seattle Mariners

-1.5

+43.1% EV on Sharp Action away spread vs Market Consensus fair 45.4% cover prob

Ω Bottom Line

Mariners ML +4.9pp (61% post), over 8.5 +15.2pp (65%), +43 EV SEA RL sharp div

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Seattle Mariners

Line: -1.5

60%

+43.1% EV on Sharp Action away spread vs Market Consensus fair 45.4% cover prob

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

65%

Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied, +15.2pp; OMEGA total vs market 8.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion shows +6.3pp on Astros +2.2 cover (56.3% posterior) with MC 9.7-9.6 near even; Mariners ML +4.5pp but whales $999k extreme home (-5 conf) and sharp away split. Massive +15.2pp over 8.5 (65.2% post, MC 19.3 total) but totals 48.7% hist WR caps at lean. Injuries ding home more (-1.9% net away) but poor quality data.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Season .314 BA leader; Mariners injuries boost usage (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

13 HR leader; favorable wind/temp projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

29 RBI leader; cleanup spot usage (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

High power profile vs Mariners staff (model)

PROP ALERT

Spencer Arrighetti Houston Astros

Under 4.5 strikeouts 57%

Recent 4 K leader but Mariners contact offense (model)

PROP ALERT

Mike Burrows Houston Astros

Under 5.5 strikeouts 56%

5.04 ERA, 42 K season; tough Mariners lineup (model)

PROP ALERT

Jose Altuve Houston Astros

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Consistent leadoff vs Mariners (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alex Bregman Houston Astros

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Strong home splits (model)

PROP ALERT

Randy Arozarena Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 59%

.285 BA leader; Astros injuries cascade (model)

PROP ALERT

Luke Raley Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

8 HR but Minute Maid suppresses (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Luke Raley Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

23 RBI leader; power spot (model)

PROP ALERT

George Kirby Seattle Mariners

Over 5.5 strikeouts 62%

2.84 ERA ace vs Astros injuries; strong K rate (model)

PROP ALERT

Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Star usage boost from injuries (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Cal Raleigh Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Catcher hot vs RHP (model)

PROP ALERT

J.P. Crawford Seattle Mariners

Under 1.0 hits 57%

Road splits weak (model)

PROP ALERT

Randy Arozarena Seattle Mariners

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Recent form edge (model projection)

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