Sevilla at Osasuna
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Sevilla
0.5
Our 58% cover prob (away win + draw) vs -125 breakeven 55.6%; boosted by Kalshi 51.5% away win prob
Ω Bottom Line
Sevilla ML +290 vs Kalshi 51.5% away (+25.9% edge); prediction market crushes inefficient retail line
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Sevilla
Line: 0.5
Our 58% cover prob (away win + draw) vs -125 breakeven 55.6%; boosted by Kalshi 51.5% away win prob
MONEYLINE
Sevilla
33% our away win prob vs 25.6% book implied (+7.4% edge); Kalshi at 51.5% confirms retail inefficiency
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
LaLiga avg 2.6 goals but model projects 2.3 total in even matchup with no pace data
Game Analysis
Books shade Sevilla to -270 ML (73% implied) despite Kalshi consensus at 53% away win prob, yielding +6.6 EV on Osasuna +105. No injuries, models, or movement; data quality poor caps conviction at lean tier. Soccer ML underdogs home offer value with 52% our prob vs 48.8% implied.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Over 0.5 goals
59%
Model projects 0.6 goals (16 in 31 matches season avg 0.52 adjusted for home matchup)
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Model projects 1.8 SOT as primary striker in average matchup
PROP ALERT
Rubén García
Osasuna
Over 0.5 assists
56%
Model projects 0.5 assists (5 in 29 matches adjusted for creativity role)
PROP ALERT
Rubén García
Osasuna
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
Model projects 1.2 SOT based on winger usage
PROP ALERT
Sergio Herrera
Osasuna
Over 3.5 saves
60%
Model projects 4.0 saves as home starter vs even attack
PROP ALERT
Alejandro Catena
Osasuna
Over 1.5 blocks
55%
Model projects 1.7 blocks (1199 clearances season metric proxy for defender)
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Under 2.0 shots_on_target
56%
Model projects 1.7 SOT slightly under vs Sevilla defense
PROP ALERT
Akor Adams
Sevilla
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Model projects 0.4 goals (8 in 27 matches avg 0.30 adjusted away)
PROP ALERT
Akor Adams
Sevilla
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Model projects 1.3 SOT vs Osasuna defense
PROP ALERT
Rubén Vargas
Sevilla
Over 0.5 assists
56%
Model projects 0.6 assists (5 in 18 matches adjusted)
PROP ALERT
Odisseas Vlachodimos
Sevilla
Over 2.5 saves
59%
Model projects 3.1 saves away vs Budimir threat
PROP ALERT
Nemanja Gudelj
Sevilla
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Model projects 0.7 SOT for mid in transition role
PROP ALERT
Akor Adams
Sevilla
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Model projects 0.9 SOT in tough road spot
PROP ALERT
Odisseas Vlachodimos
Sevilla
Under 3.0 saves
55%
Model projects 2.7 saves in projected low-total game