Song Yadong at Deiveson Figueiredo
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Deiveson Figueiredo
0.0
Pick 'em spread mirrors moneyline edge — Figueiredo's wrestling advantage gives him a path to win rounds even if he doesn't finish.
Ω Bottom Line
Figueiredo at +108: thin edge from resume gap + whale signal, but poor data quality caps confidence at 58.
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Deiveson Figueiredo
Figueiredo is the more proven elite-level fighter with a win over Garbrandt and a split decision loss to Moreno — Yadong has not faced this caliber of wrestle-boxing.
SPREAD
Deiveson Figueiredo
Pick 'em spread mirrors moneyline edge — Figueiredo's wrestling advantage gives him a path to win rounds even if he doesn't finish.
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Figueiredo has 9 finishes in 22 wins (41% finish rate) and Yadong has 7 finishes in 21 wins (33%) — both have paths to early stoppage but also high-level durability.
Game Analysis
Figueiredo at -125 is a slight edge based on his takedown defense (87%) and championship experience. Yadong has the power advantage but Figueiredo's wrestling should control the fight. The whale signal on Yadong is minor ($1.6K) and unconfirmed. Under 2.5 rounds is the strongest play given both fighters' finish rates (67% and 64%), but recent decision trends for both create risk. Model-implied lines only — no market confirmation. Bet small.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Deiveson Figueiredo
Deiveson Figueiredo
Over 0.5 total_bases
58%
Figueiredo has finished 9 of 22 wins by submission or TKO — at +108 moneyline, the implied probability of a finish is ~48%. Model projects slightly higher due to Yadong's vulnerability to wrestle-boxers.
PROP ALERT
Song Yadong
Song Yadong
Under 0.5 total_bases
55%
Yadong has only 7 finishes in 21 wins (33%) and faces a durable former champion in Figueiredo who has never been finished. Under 0.5 finishes for Yadong is the more likely outcome.