Sporting Kansas City at Portland Timbers

MLS May 10, 2026 02:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Sporting Kansas City

1.5

Omega spread even (0.0) vs market POR -1.5 (1.5pt edge to SKC cover); MC projects 3.3-3.2 (+0.1 home margin).

Ω Bottom Line

SKC +1.5 -175 (omega even vs mkt -1.5, +2.1EV); O3.5 +21EV (7.5 model total misprice)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Sporting Kansas City

Line: 1.5

65%

Omega spread even (0.0) vs market POR -1.5 (1.5pt edge to SKC cover); MC projects 3.3-3.2 (+0.1 home margin).

TOTAL

over

Line: 3.5

62%

calibrated 63.7% over 3.5 (+13.7pp edge); OMEGA total, Dixon-Coles 12.8 lambda, model 6.5 expected.

Game Analysis

Market overprices POR -200 ML (66.7% implied) vs bayesian 60.8% home/39.2% SKC, yielding +105 EV on +425. Omega even spread crushes -1.5 POR pricing; MC 6.5 total dwarfs 3.5 line (+13.7pp over edge). Moderate whales on SKC + Portland turf pace confirm high-scoring even spot.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

James Pantemis Portland Timbers

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Model projects 3.4 saves on high-shot SKC attack (lambda 3.8 goals).

PROP ALERT

Trey Muse Portland Timbers

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Backup GK sees 2.9 proj saves in even matchup pace.

PROP ALERT

Finn Surman Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

Defender proj 0.4 SOT vs SKC defense.

PROP ALERT

Diego Chará Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Mid proj 0.3 SOT in possession battle.

PROP ALERT

Joao Ortiz Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 goals 64%

Proj 0.2 goals for mid vs SKC backline.

PROP ALERT

Kamal Miller Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Defender low usage proj 0.3 SOT.

PROP ALERT

Zac McGraw Portland Timbers

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Minimal proj 0.2 SOT from CB.

PROP ALERT

Juan Mosquera Portland Timbers

Under 0.5 goals 63%

Wing proj 0.3 goals in high total spot.

PROP ALERT

John Pulskamp Sporting Kansas City

Over 3.0 saves 60%

GK proj 3.3 saves vs POR shots (lambda 3.8).

PROP ALERT

Stefan Cleveland Sporting Kansas City

Over 2.5 saves 57%

Backup proj 2.8 saves in model pace.

PROP ALERT

Manu García Sporting Kansas City

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Mid high usage proj 1.3 SOT vs POR turf pace.

PROP ALERT

Ethan Bartlow Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

CB proj 0.4 SOT low volume.

PROP ALERT

Zorhan Bassong Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Def proj 0.3 SOT matchup.

PROP ALERT

Jacob Bartlett Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 goals 64%

Mid proj 0.2 goals.

PROP ALERT

Wyatt Meyer Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Def low proj 0.3 SOT.

PROP ALERT

Pierre Lurot Sporting Kansas City

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Proj 0.4 SOT for mid.

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