St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

NHL April 06, 2026 01:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

70% Strong

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

-230

+25.4% EV on Bovada +190 vs Pinnacle fair 43% home cover prob; sharp 10.4% spread divergence

Ω Bottom Line

COL spread +25.4% EV at +190 (sharp 10.4% edge) + under 6.5 +16% EV (11.7% sharp); fade -230 ML juice

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

Line: -230

70%

+25.4% EV on Bovada +190 vs Pinnacle fair 43% home cover prob; sharp 10.4% spread divergence

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.5

68%

Sharp 11.7% under edge vs retail over juice; Pinnacle fair over just 50.5%

Game Analysis

Avalanche -230 is overpriced with Makar OUT (-15% team strength) and Roy sidelined; Blues get 58% model prob vs 69.7% implied. Total 6.5 leans under as injuries suppress scoring (Avs avg -0.4 goals without top D). Blues ML +190 offers +10.5 EV with NHL underdog MLs hitting 53.8% in lean tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 points 60%

League-leading 122 points pace; projects 1.7 vs Blues D (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 goals 58%

51 goals pace; Blues allow 0.9 G/game to centers

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 assists 59%

71 assists pace; high-usage playmaker

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 points 55%

Elite defenseman PP threat; day-to-day but expected (model)

PROP ALERT

Robert Thomas St. Louis Blues

Over 0.5 points 57%

53 points pace; primary center vs Avs secondary D

PROP ALERT

Robert Thomas St. Louis Blues

Over 0.5 assists 56%

35 assists pace; Blues top distributor

PROP ALERT

Pavel Buchnevich St. Louis Blues

Under 0.5 points 55%

Day-to-day injury risk caps usage vs Avs elite PK

PROP ALERT

Dylan Holloway St. Louis Blues

Under 0.5 goals 58%

19 goals pace but secondary role vs Makar D

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.0 points 59%

Elite winger complements MacKinnon; Blues weak vs RW

PROP ALERT

Jordan Kyrou St. Louis Blues

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

High-volume shooter; Avs goalie fatigue spot

PROP ALERT

Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche

Over 26.5 saves 56%

Blues generate 28 SOG/game avg; under total projects volume

PROP ALERT

Brayden Schenn St. Louis Blues

Under 0.5 points 55%

Veteran faces MacKinnon shutdown line

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