St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Monte Carlo sims project 18.4 combined runs vs the 22.5 line — that's an 82.5% under probability with 0.5% standard error, the strongest single signal in a data-poor game. Bayesian fusion gives St. Louis a +5.2pp edge on a pick'em spread despite market favoring Atlanta. But with 52% data quality, no pitcher info, and model agreement VERY_LOW on moneyline, only the under at this inflated total and a tiny spread lean on St. Louis survive the filter. Whale money is split 56/44 home/away on $364K volume — not enough to override the Monte Carlo under signal.