St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

This game is a data-quality nightmare — no probable pitchers, degraded signals across the board. The market has Braves as -157 favorites (61.1% implied) but OMEGA's independent line sees a near pick-em (36.4% home win prob). The 13.5-point total discrepancy (Omega 22.5 vs market 9.0) screams missing context — likely two aces starting would explain it. Bayesian fusion gives away +6.7pp edge on the moneyline and +6.3pp on the spread, but with 18.2% model agreement, these edges are fragile. Sharp money and prediction markets both lean away, and whale volume is extreme ($582K) but split. Best play is Cardinals ML at +133 — the +6.7pp edge is real if the market is overpricing Braves without knowing the pitchers. Keep units small.