St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals
0.0
Omega spread 0.0 vs market -163 implies 16.3pt overprice on DET
Ω Bottom Line
STL +135 ML +5.2 EV (omega 58% vs market 42% breakeven); model total 24.0 crushes 7.5 line
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals
Omega spread 0.0 vs market -163 implies 16.3pt overprice on DET
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Cardinals
Market -163 implies 62% DET win but omega_model ELO/Poisson blend gives STL 58% (breakeven exceeded by 15%)
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.5
Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5 (16.5pt edge); Poisson expects 24 combined runs
Game Analysis
Skubal's 0.69 ERA crushes Cardinals projection (3.3 runs allowed), giving Tigers 58% win prob and -1.5 cover in 54% sims. McGreevy's 0.00 unproven vs Tigers' .364 BA Colt Keith. Totals suppressed by ace starter; model under 7.5 in 56% outcomes. Multiple Day-to-Day injuries but no stars out.
Game Theory & Utilization
Skubal's 0.69 ERA crushes Cardinals projection (3.3 runs allowed), giving Tigers 58% win prob and -1.5 cover in 54% sims. McGreevy's 0.00 unproven vs Tigers' .364 BA Colt Keith. Totals suppressed by ace starter; model under 7.5 in 56% outcomes. Multiple Day-to-Day injuries but no stars out.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Colt Keith
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.0 hits
60%
Model projection .364 BA leader gets leadoff looks vs STL starter
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
58%
2 HR leader but projection caps at 0.3 vs STL pitching
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
62%
0.69 ERA ace projects 7.2 K's vs STL (bottom-10 K%)
PROP ALERT
Nolan Gorman
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
2 HR pace but faces Skubal (projects 0.3 HR allowed)
PROP ALERT
Victor Scott II
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 hits
57%
.333 BA projects 0.9 hits in leadoff role
PROP ALERT
Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 4.5 strikeouts
60%
1.64 ERA projects 5.3 K's vs DET young lineup
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 rbis
56%
7 RBI pace but low lineup spot limits opps
PROP ALERT
Nolan Gorman
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 1.5 total_bases
57%
Skubal matchup caps projection at 1.2 TB
PROP ALERT
Victor Scott II
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 steals
55%
Speed threat projects 0.7 SB attempts
PROP ALERT
Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 5.5 hits
59%
Projects 5.0 H vs DET contact hitters