St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
74%
High Edge
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
-143
Pinnacle de-vigged fair value shows DET spread at 37% (fair +170) vs Bovada +320 odds = +55.4% EV; sharp divergence 14.7%
Ω Bottom Line
DET spread +55.4% EV at Bovada (+320 vs Pinnacle fair +170) on 14.7% sharp divergence—smash home spread
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: -143
Pinnacle de-vigged fair value shows DET spread at 37% (fair +170) vs Bovada +320 odds = +55.4% EV; sharp divergence 14.7%
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Cardinals
Omega_model win prob 38.7% vs market-implied 45.6% de-vigged away (Pinnacle fair 44.1%) offers slight edge on underdog ML
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.0
Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 implies massive overreaction; Pinnacle fair over 51.8% vs -110
Game Analysis
Omega model projects 12-12 scoring (total 24.0) vs market 8.0, screaming overvalue on O8 while spread 0.0 disputes DET -136 juice. STL +113 ML hits breakeven by 17% with our 64% prob; tier data favors ML over spreads. Skubal (0.69 ERA) dominates but Cardinals leaders (Scott .308, Walker 8RBI) exploit DET injuries.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Colt Keith
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.0 hits
60%
Team leader .417 BA; high-contact profile vs average Cardinals SP
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
58%
2 HR leader but low power profile; model projects 0.3 vs STL pitching
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
62%
0.69 ERA leader projects 7.2 K's vs STL (25th vs LHP); elite K-rate
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Under 4.5 hits
59%
1 hit allowed leader; sub-1.00 WHIP dominates Cardinals lineup
PROP ALERT
Framber Valdez
Detroit Tigers
Over 5.5 strikeouts
57%
10 K leader; groundball machine vs DET power (Dingler HR threat)
PROP ALERT
Victor Scott II
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 hits
60%
.308 BA leader; speed/contact vs Tigers staff (Skubal dominant but volatile)
PROP ALERT
Nolan Gorman
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
2 HR leader but .220 xBA; Tigers park suppresses power
PROP ALERT
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
8 TB leader; pull power plays vs RHP (projected Tigers starter)
PROP ALERT
Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 4.5 strikeouts
61%
1.64 ERA leader projects 5.1 K vs DET (Keith hot but weak depth)
PROP ALERT
Colt Keith
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 total_bases
59%
Extends .417 BA streak; favorable matchup vs Liberatore
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 rbis
57%
Limited RBI opps behind weak lineup; cleanup projection low
PROP ALERT
Nolan Gorman
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 hits
58%
Contact uptick vs RHP; Tigers bullpen vulnerable