St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals
1.5
OMEGA spread and MC home cover 47.3% vs market PIT -1.5, value on STL +1.5
Ω Bottom Line
STL ML +109 (+10.1 EV): MC 52.7% win prob vs 47.8% breakeven + extreme whales $107k despite sharp home spread divergence
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals
Line: 1.5
OMEGA spread and MC home cover 47.3% vs market PIT -1.5, value on STL +1.5
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Cardinals
MC PIT win 47.3% (STL 52.7%) vs market implied 56.7%, extreme whale volume $107k on STL (91% conf)
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
model projected 19.8 total (10.0-9.8) vs market 8.5, OMEGA total implies massive over edge
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior fuses to 59% Pirates win vs omega 40.6% implied (+2.5% edge, moderate signal) but VERY_LOW model agreement (ELO 70wt > scoring) and strong $97k whales (94%) on Cardinals cap conviction. MC 70.6% under inflated 24.0 total (proj 21) but MLB totals 48.7% WR historically unprofitable, -5 pt adjustment. Equal -8.7% injuries both sides, no pitchers/weather; degraded data reduces all conf by 4 pts.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Oneil Cruz
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 0.8 hits
58%
Model projection .283 BA leader, high-usage vs unknown matchup (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Oneil Cruz
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 0.3 home_runs
55%
8 team-leading HR, power projection in high-total spot (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Oneil Cruz
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
Leads team RBI 24, multi-hit upside (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Paul Skenes
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 6.5 strikeouts
60%
Ace projection, team leader wins (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Braxton Ashcraft
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 4.5 strikeouts
56%
2.43 ERA leader, 32 K (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Bryan Reynolds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 0.9 hits
57%
Core hitter projection in even matchup (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 1.2 total_bases
55%
Contact hitter, regression in high total (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Andrew McCutchen
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 0.5 rbis
56%
Veteran RBI projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.8 hits
59%
.283 BA leader, strong projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.3 home_runs
56%
8 team HR, power in overs spot (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.6 rbis
58%
17 RBI leader, lineup protection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Nolan Arenado
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.4 total_bases
57%
Veteran slugger projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.7 hits
55%
Catcher contact upside (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Brendan Donovan
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 0.9 hits
56%
Leadoff regression risk (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Michael McGreevy
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 4.0 strikeouts
59%
2.97 ERA projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Paul Goldschmidt
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.3 total_bases
58%
Star 1B projection (model-generated)