St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals
1.5
Omega independent spread 0.0 and model 10k sims margin -0.0 (away covers 46.1% at even) vs market PIT -1.5
Ω Bottom Line
STL +1.5 (Omega 0.0 edge 163pts) + ML +3.8pp Bayesian/whale extreme + O8 +15.2pp (model total 22.5)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
St. Louis Cardinals
Line: 1.5
Omega independent spread 0.0 and model 10k sims margin -0.0 (away covers 46.1% at even) vs market PIT -1.5
MONEYLINE
St. Louis Cardinals
calibrated 41.8% STL win vs market 38.0% (+3.8pp edge)
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.0
calibrated over posterior 65.2% vs market 50.0% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total vs 8.0
Game Analysis
MC 10k sims project 21.0 runs (10.6-10.4) vs inflated 24.0 total (71.6% under prob, high edge conf). Bayesian posterior 56.7% Pirates win vs +155 implied 39.2% (+17.5% edge) despite low agreement. Strong whales ($86k) on Cardinals contradict, equal injuries cap upside; degraded data (52% quality).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Paul Skenes
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 7.5 strikeouts
60%
Model projection 8.2 K based on elite K/9 vs STL weak vs RHP (no market line)
PROP ALERT
Oneil Cruz
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 1.5 total_bases
55%
Model projection 1.8 TB; power profile despite day-to-day (usage boost if plays)
PROP ALERT
Nick Gonzales
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 1.5 hits
58%
Model projection 1.1 hits off .323 BA avg adjusted for matchup
PROP ALERT
Bryan Reynolds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 1.0 hits
57%
Model projection 1.2 hits; consistent contact hitter
PROP ALERT
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 1.5 total_bases
56%
Model projection 1.3 TB vs STL pitching
PROP ALERT
Braxton Ashcraft
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 4.5 strikeouts
59%
Model projection 5.1 K; 2.43 ERA leader adjusted up
PROP ALERT
Jack Suwinski
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 0.5 home_runs
55%
Model projection 0.2 HR; low power projection
PROP ALERT
Joey Bart
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 0.5 rbis
56%
Model projection 0.4 RBI in projected scoring env
PROP ALERT
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 0.5 home_runs
62%
Model projection 0.3 HR despite 8 HR season; PIT pitching suppresses
PROP ALERT
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 rbis
55%
Model projection 0.9 RBI; 17 RBI leader in high total spot
PROP ALERT
Nolan Arenado
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 1.5 hits
59%
Model projection 1.2 hits vs PIT staff
PROP ALERT
Paul Goldschmidt
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
Model projection 1.7 TB; veteran consistency
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 rbis
57%
Model projection 0.8 RBI in model high-scoring game
PROP ALERT
Michael McGreevy
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 5.5 strikeouts
60%
Model projection 6.1 K; 2.97 ERA adjusted for PIT lineup
PROP ALERT
Masyn Winn
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.0 hits
56%
Model projection 1.3 hits; speed/contact profile
PROP ALERT
Brendan Donovan
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 hits
55%
Model projection 1.1 hits; on-base skills