St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

MLB May 08, 2026 02:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

St. Louis Cardinals

1.5

+EV analysis fair value 57.5% Cardinals cover vs market implied ~38.5% at +160

Ω Bottom Line

Cardinals +1.5/+149 ML value Bayesian +6.2pp & +EV fair 57.5% cover vs -181 juice, MC even matchup

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

St. Louis Cardinals

Line: 1.5

58%

+EV analysis fair value 57.5% Cardinals cover vs market implied ~38.5% at +160

MONEYLINE

St. Louis Cardinals

42%

calibrated +6.2pp edge on away ML (posterior 41.8% vs market 35.6%)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

60%

Posterior 65.2% over 8.0 (+15.2pp edge), MC projects 19.8 total

Game Analysis

Omega line heavy fave Cardinals -181 (64% implied) but Bayesian fuses to 51.7% Padres win prob (+16pp edge at +181). MC 10k sims confirm low score 9.6-10.0 (74.5% under 22.5, HIGH conf). Extreme whales ($164k) + Kalshi 58% pile Home vs model overreaction to ELO.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Model projection .276 AVG projects 0.9 hits vs 0.5 line (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Season leaders project 1.3 TB consistent with AVG/22 RBI usage (model)

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

7 HR pace low for HR prop, projects 0.2 (model)

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

22 RBI projects moderate RBI output (model)

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Over 5.5 strikeouts 62%

2.95 ERA + 39 K projects 6.5+ vs Cardinals lineup (model)

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Under 6.5 strikeouts 57%

Pace caps at avg, no matchup boost (model)

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Under 4.5 hits 59%

Strong ERA limits hits allowed (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Over 5.5 hits 55%

Variance in Cardinals offense (model)

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 hits 60%

.303 AVG projects strong hit prob (model)

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

10 HR pace modest vs Padres pitching (model)

PROP ALERT

Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

29 RBI projects lineup support (model)

PROP ALERT

Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Michael McGreevy St. Louis Cardinals

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

2.52 ERA projects Ks vs Padres (model)

PROP ALERT

Michael McGreevy St. Louis Cardinals

Under 5.5 hits 61%

Quality start projection limits hits (model)

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Hot bat .303 supports RBI (model)

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Moderate pace vs Cardinals arms (model)

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail