St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

MLB May 09, 2026 11:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

St. Louis Cardinals

2.2

calibrated 56.3% Cardinals cover +2.2 vs market 50%; omega spread pickem 0.0 vs market -2.2 home

Ω Bottom Line

Cardinals +2.2 (56.3% posterior, omega pickem edge) + over 7.5 (65% prob vs model 22.5 total)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

St. Louis Cardinals

Line: 2.2

56%

calibrated 56.3% Cardinals cover +2.2 vs market 50%; omega spread pickem 0.0 vs market -2.2 home

MONEYLINE

St. Louis Cardinals

46%

Posterior 45.6% Cardinals win vs implied 39.5%; exceeds breakeven 43.9%

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

65%

Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50%; OMEGA total and model projected 19.3 >> 7.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion shows strong model edge to Cardinals +2.2 cover (56.3% posterior, +6.3pp vs market) with Omega line at even 0.0 and early CLV value. Total market at 8.0 vs Omega 22.5/MC 19.7 screams over (65% posterior) despite historical total weakness. Whale home extreme but prediction markets/ models favor away value; VERY_LOW agreement caps conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

.309 BA recent form projects 1.8 total bases vs average matchup

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Model projects 1.2 hits from .309 BA and 10 HR power profile

PROP ALERT

Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

30 RBI leader projects 0.7 RBI in high-total model spot

PROP ALERT

Michael McGreevy St. Louis Cardinals

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

2.52 ERA projects 5.2 K in neutral matchup no pitcher confirmed

PROP ALERT

Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

10 HR pace but model projects 0.3 HR low variance spot

PROP ALERT

Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals

Over 0.5 hits 60%

RBI producer projects 0.9 hits in projected high total

PROP ALERT

Michael McGreevy St. Louis Cardinals

Under 5.5 strikeouts 56%

Recent form caps at 4.8 K projection

PROP ALERT

Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals

Over 1.0 total_bases 57%

Projects 1.4 bases from RBI role

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 1.0 hits 58%

.277 BA projects 0.9 hits vs regression risk

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 1.5 total_bases 59%

23 RBI but model 1.3 bases in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

2.76 ERA and 45 K projects 6.1 in high total

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Projects 0.4 RBI low usage

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Under 6.5 strikeouts 57%

Caps at 5.8 K projection

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

7 HR pace projects 0.2 HR

PROP ALERT

Michael King San Diego Padres

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

Consistent 5.4 K floor

PROP ALERT

Xander Bogaerts San Diego Padres

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Projects 0.6 RBI from leader role

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