St. Louis CITY SC at Austin FC

MLS May 03, 2026 09:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

MONEYLINE

St. Louis CITY SC

None

calibrated 60% St. Louis win probability vs devigged market ~49%

Ω Bottom Line

St. Louis CITY SC ML +160: 60% posterior vs ~49% devigged market (+11pp edge) + $72k strong whale steam

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

St. Louis CITY SC

60%

calibrated 60% St. Louis win probability vs devigged market ~49%

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior pegs St. Louis at 60% ML win probability matching devigged prior but +160 offers +56 EV vs raw 38.5% implied; strong whales ($72k, 82%) confirm away. Spread EV negative due to -200 juice on +0.5 despite 60% cover prob. Totals pass with no posterior/pace data and historical 48.7% WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Brad Stuver Austin FC

Over 3.5 saves 58%

Model projection 4.0 saves vs St. Louis attack (leader 55 saves season)

PROP ALERT

Jon Gallagher Austin FC

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection 1.2 SOT as forward in average matchup

PROP ALERT

Owen Wolff Austin FC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection 0.8 SOT for high-usage midfielder

PROP ALERT

Ilie Sánchez Austin FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Model projection 0.3 SOG as defensive mid

PROP ALERT

Brendan Hines-Ike Austin FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Model projection 0.2 SOG for defender (leader 421 minutes)

PROP ALERT

Jon Bell Austin FC

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection 0.1 goals as mid

PROP ALERT

Besard Sabovic Austin FC

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Model projection 0.1 assists

PROP ALERT

Joseph Rosales Austin FC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection 0.7 SOT as wingback

PROP ALERT

Marcel Hartel St. Louis CITY SC

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection 0.6 goals (3 goals in 8 matches, favorable matchup)

PROP ALERT

Roman Bürki St. Louis CITY SC

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Model projection 3.0 saves (leader 27 saves)

PROP ALERT

Eduard Löwen St. Louis CITY SC

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection 1.3 SOT high-usage mid

PROP ALERT

Timo Baumgartl St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Model projection 0.2 SOG defender (leader 583 minutes)

PROP ALERT

Tomas Ostrak St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection 0.3 goals

PROP ALERT

Christopher Durkin St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Model projection 0.1 assists defensive mid

PROP ALERT

Rafael Santos St. Louis CITY SC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection 0.7 SOT wingback

PROP ALERT

Lukas MacNaughton St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projection 0.1 SOG defender

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