St. Louis CITY SC at Colorado Rapids
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis CITY SC
0.5
Omega independent spread at 0.0 vs market COL -0.5 provides 0.5pt value on road dog
Ω Bottom Line
Over 2.5 +23.9 EV (64.9% posterior vs 50% market), Omega 7.5 total crushes 2.5 line
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
St. Louis CITY SC
Line: 0.5
Omega independent spread at 0.0 vs market COL -0.5 provides 0.5pt value on road dog
MONEYLINE
St. Louis CITY SC
Posterior away win prob 49.3% vs market 48.8% implied (+0.5pp), massive payout leverage at +235
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
calibrated 64.9% over 2.5 vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge), OMEGA total and Dixon-Coles 6.4 lambda
Game Analysis
Omega/Dixon-Coles project total 7.5 vs market 2.5 with 64.9% over posterior; MC 6.7 total confirms. Extreme $124k whales (92%) on STL +235 despite -134 Omega ML away fav, but low model agreement caps game conf. Altitude gives COL edge but models regress it out.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Zack Steffen
Colorado Rapids
Over 3.5 saves
60%
Model projection for GK vs expected 3.8 away goals, altitude pace boost
PROP ALERT
Lucas Herrington
Colorado Rapids
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
High usage winger in home altitude spot, recent form projection
PROP ALERT
Keegan Rosenberry
Colorado Rapids
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
62%
RB overlapping runs, model projects 0.7 in high total game
PROP ALERT
Connor Ronan
Colorado Rapids
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
Low volume midfielder, projection 0.3 vs STL defense
PROP ALERT
Joshua Atencio
Colorado Rapids
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Home altitude usage bump for CM
PROP ALERT
Roman Bürki
St. Louis CITY SC
Over 3.0 saves
60%
Expects 3.8 home shots, road GK projection
PROP ALERT
Marcel Hartel
St. Louis CITY SC
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
3 goals in 9 matches, high usage AM vs altitude pace
PROP ALERT
Eduard Löwen
St. Louis CITY SC
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Midfield creator projection up in high total