St. Louis CITY SC at Seattle Sounders FC

MLS April 19, 2026 01:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

St. Louis CITY SC

0.5

Whale consensus on away implies 50% cover prob vs 47.6% breakeven at +110

Ω Bottom Line

Institutional whales drop $836k extreme vol on St. Louis +380 ML (+20 EV vs SEA -145 overjuice)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

St. Louis CITY SC

Line: 0.5

58%

Whale consensus on away implies 50% cover prob vs 47.6% breakeven at +110

MONEYLINE

St. Louis CITY SC

62%

Extreme institutional whale action ($836k volume) on +380 underdog vs market's 20.8% implied

Game Analysis

St. Louis cross-country travel (>2000mi) triggers -15% penalty, boosting Seattle cover prob to 62% vs market 59%. Extreme whale action ($836k vol, 24 wallets) on away faded as Tier 2 signal outweighed by situational quant adj. Poor data caps edge; spreads in Lean tier show 56.6% WR (profitable, N=129).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Albert Rusnák Seattle Sounders FC

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Model projects 0.4 goals vs typical 0.5 line; low usage attacker in balanced attack

PROP ALERT

Cristian Roldan Seattle Sounders FC

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model projects 1.3 SOT; mid usage in possession game

PROP ALERT

Stefan Frei Seattle Sounders FC

Under 3.0 saves 58%

Model projects 2.8 saves; home clean sheet potential

PROP ALERT

Hassani Dotson Seattle Sounders FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 65%

Model projects 0.3 SOT; defensive mid low volume

PROP ALERT

Alex Roldan Seattle Sounders FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Model projects 0.4 SOT; wingback conservative

PROP ALERT

Nouhou Tolo Seattle Sounders FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

Model projects 0.3 SOT; LB rarely shoots

PROP ALERT

Jackson Ragen Seattle Sounders FC

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Model projects 0.2 SOT; rare CB shots but matchup

PROP ALERT

Yeimar Gómez Seattle Sounders FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 63%

Model projects 0.3 SOT; CB low volume

PROP ALERT

Marcel Hartel St. Louis CITY SC

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Model projects 0.6 goals; 2G in 6 matches leader

PROP ALERT

Eduard Löwen St. Louis CITY SC

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projects 1.7 SOT; high usage attacker

PROP ALERT

Roman Bürki St. Louis CITY SC

Under 3.5 saves 57%

Model projects 3.2 saves; road underdog faces pressure

PROP ALERT

Tomas Ostrak St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 goals 61%

Model projects 0.4 goals; secondary forward

PROP ALERT

Christopher Durkin St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

Model projects 0.4 SOT; mid low shots

PROP ALERT

Rafael Santos St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 64%

Model projects 0.2 SOT; LB defensive

PROP ALERT

Timo Baumgartl St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 65%

Model projects 0.1 SOT; CB minimal

PROP ALERT

Jaziel Orozco St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projects 0.4 SOT; young low volume

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