St. Pauli at 1. FC Union Berlin
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
1. FC Union Berlin
-0.5
Union's better record (8-7-12 vs 6-6-15) and home venue edge in Berlin supports -0.5 despite flat ML pricing
Ω Bottom Line
Union +100 ML value (55% model prob vs 50% implied) on better record vs road-weak St. Pauli, +4.5 EV
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
1. FC Union Berlin
Line: -0.5
Union's better record (8-7-12 vs 6-6-15) and home venue edge in Berlin supports -0.5 despite flat ML pricing
MONEYLINE
1. FC Union Berlin
Even money on superior home side (8-7-12 record) vs struggling road team (6-6-15); breakeven 50% vs our 55% prob
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Bundesliga averages tilt under 2.5 in non-elite matchups; both mid-table with poor scoring records
Game Analysis
Union +105 ML offers +5.7% edge (our 54.5% vs 48.8% breakeven) with home advantage in low-total spot (proj 1.2-1.1). St. Pauli model 1-0 but N=1 irrelevant; no injuries or flags. Props all under bias given 2.5 total and player rates (Khedira 0.19 goals/match).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Rani Khedira
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 0.5 goals
60%
5 goals in 26 matches = 0.19 avg; low-usage midfielder in defensive Union system
PROP ALERT
Andrej Ilic
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 0.5 assists
58%
7 assists/25 matches vs St. Pauli defensive setup caps creativity
PROP ALERT
Danel Sinani
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 0.5 goals
59%
5 goals/24 matches; winger usage low in low-total spot
PROP ALERT
Joel Chima Fujita
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 0.5 assists
57%
3 assists/26 matches; limited creator on road-weary St. Pauli matchup
PROP ALERT
Olivier Schmiderer
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Model projection based on St. Pauli attack struggles away; low xG team
PROP ALERT
Morgan Guilavogui
St. Pauli
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
Road inefficiency vs Union backline; avg 1.1 SOG projected
PROP ALERT
Jackson Irvine
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 assists
58%
Midfield creator limited in low-possession away games
PROP ALERT
Carlo Boukhalfa
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 goals
57%
Fringe attacker; under in 2.5 total environment
PROP ALERT
Rani Khedira
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Defensive mid rarely shoots on frame
PROP ALERT
Andrej Ilic
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Union home games low pace caps chances
PROP ALERT
Danel Sinani
1. FC Union Berlin
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
59%
Winger projection fits under in tight matchup
PROP ALERT
Jackson Irvine
St. Pauli
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Midfielder rarely tests keeper away